DHL Group: Q2 details post positive pre-announcement.

Research evidence excerpt

M

Update

August 5, 2026 06:25 AM GMT

Morgan Stanley & Co. International plc+

DHL Group | Europe

Cedar Ekblom, CFA

Equity Analyst

Q2 details post positive preannouncement.

Peter Ajose-Adeogun

Equity Analyst

DHL Group (DHLn.DE, DHL GY)

Transport | Germany

AlphaSignals Earnings Reaction

Unchanged

Meaningful upside

Modest revision higher

Impact to our thesis

Financial results versus consensus

Direction of next 12-month

consensus EPS

Source: Company data, Morgan Stanley Research

Key Takeaways

Stock Rating

Industry View

Price target

Shr price, close (Aug 4, 2026)

52-Week Range

Mkt cap, curr (mn)

Net debt (12/26e) (mn)*

EV, curr (mn)*

Equal-weight

In-Line

€50.00

€57.72

€58.30-36.99

€65,451

€24,258

€89,960

* = GAAP or approximated based on GAAP

EBIT +30% YoY, TDI weight per day +9%. Guidance upgrade already

communicated. Implies lower EBIT HoH despite usual Q4 peak.

Benefits from volatile markets quantified at €150mn in Express, not necessarily

repeatable.

Cash generation is a bit light if we remove IEEPA tariff refunds, investment in

working capital. This is consistent with peers and should normalise...

...as rate / fuel environment stabilises. Buy back upsized and extended. Positive.

Equal-weight. Operating delivery, cycle tailwind have been supportive but now

reflected in shares we believe post outperformance. FY26/27e EV/EBIT 14.1x /

13.4x.

DHL pre announced a beat on Q2 earnings in early July (see link). Today we get more

details on the drivers, cash generation and granular details on the outlook.

Q2 highlights: Group EBIT +30% YoY and an 8.3% margin (+110bps) were driven

almost entirely by Express, where EBIT rose 64% YoY as TDI weight per day turned

positive (+9.4%) after a number of quarters decline. Revenue grew 13% YoY the

fastest since 2022, though roughly three-quarters of the Express top line came from

price, fuel surcharge pass-through and mix rather than volume. Soft spots are

Supply Chain, where margin fell 57bps even after adjusting for last year's €54m nonrecurring benefit, and P&P Germany, where EBIT dropped 18.7% on a 3% April wage

increase with no mail price offset. Beat at EBIT vs. MSe / consensus is 15% / 21%

…