Abu Dhabi National Oil Co Distribution: 2Q26 First Take: Solid Operational, Inv. Gains Ahead of Expectations

Research evidence excerpt

M

Update

August 5, 2026 05:15 AM GMT

Abu Dhabi National Oil Co Distribution | Europe

Morgan Stanley & Co. International plc+

Ricardo Rezende, CFA

Equity Analyst

2Q26 First Take: Solid

Operational, Inv. Gains Ahead of

Expectations

Giulia Faro

Research Associate

Sylvia C Richards

Research Associate

Abu Dhabi National Oil Co Distribution (ADNOCDIST.AD,

ADNOCDIS DH)

AlphaSignals Earnings Reaction

EEMEA - Oil & Gas | United Arab Emirates

Strengthens our thesis

Meaningful upside

Modest revision higher

Impact to our thesis

Financial results versus consensus

Direction of next 12-month

consensus EPS

Source: Company data, Morgan Stanley Research

Key Takeaways

Group EBITDA of AED1,757mn beat cons./MSe by 17.1/7.0%, driven by AED738mn

Stock Rating

Industry View

Price target

Shr price, close (Aug 4, 2026)

52-Week Range

Mkt cap, curr (mn)

Net debt (12/26e) (mn)*

EV, curr (mn)*

Overweight

No Rating

AED 4.70

AED 4.10

AED 4.18- 3.47

AED 51,242

AED 4,523

AED 56,025

* = GAAP or approximated based on GAAP

inventory gains vs our ~AED600mn estimate. Underlying EBITDA was +5.0% vs.

MSe.

Corporate EBITDA beat MSe by 20.8% on in-line volume, while aviation EBITDA

missed by 34.3% despite volume beating by 36.6%.

Retail volumes were in-line with MSe (+0.2%), but with better unit profitability.

That drove EBITDA 2.9% ahead of MSe.

FCF beat MSe by 71.1% with capex 12.0% below and net debt 8.4% lower; cash

conversion supports the result and we see potential for FY dividends above min

US$700mn.

2026 guide was reiterated at 60-70 new stations, 50-60 EV points and US$250300m capex; Q2 dividend of 5.1425 fils was approved.

Bottom line: positive. 2Q26 revenue/EBITDA/net income were +17.8%/+7.0%/

+8.0% versus MSe, while EBITDA/net income beat company-compiled consensus by

17.1%/19.8%. Operational performance was ahead of our expectations, with

underlying EBITDA +5.0% vs. MSe. That was compounded by inventory gains of

AED738m (AED485mn in retail, AED253mn in commercial) exceeding our

AED600m expectation. Corporate remained the key operating upside, with EBITDA

materially beating MSe by 20.8% on essentially in-line volumes and EBITDA/liter

was 21.0% ahead, supporting the value-over-volume strategy.…