SpaceX: Strong Beat/Outlook vs. Higher Capex: Reiterate $300 PT

Research evidence excerpt

M

Update

August 5, 2026 05:04 AM GMT

Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC

SpaceX | North America

Adam Jonas, CFA

Equity Analyst

Strong Beat/Outlook vs. Higher

Capex: Reiterate $300 PT

William Tackett, CFA

Research Associate

Sean Diffley, CFA

Equity Analyst

Kristine T Liwag

AlphaSignals Earnings Reaction

Equity Analyst

Unchanged

Modest upside

Modest revision higher

Impact to our thesis

Financial results versus consensus

Direction of next 12-month

consensus EPS

Brian Nowak, CFA

Source: Company data, Morgan Stanley Research

2Q featured a 16% revenue beat, 75% EBITDA beat. Target for >

$100bn total company ARR (end Dec ’26) and 5 to 10GW of

compute (YE27) help ‘feed the ducks’ on the outlook. Higher

estimates offset by higher capex. PT remains $300.

Key takeaways from the 2Q numbers:

• $1.4bn EBIT beat driven by timing of AI neocloud revenue, Starlink

Government & Enterprise and Space.

• Stronger EBIT margins across each segment.

• Starlink consumer subs (12mm vs. MS 12mm), ARPU ($66/mo vs. MS $65/

mo) and period-end compute capacity (1.4GW) all broadly in line with

expectations.

• $18bn of capex (including Echostar payments) was modestly lower than MS

Equity Analyst

the remainder of the year, implying approximately incremental ~$18bn of 2H

capex on top of our prior forecast.

SpaceX (SPCX.O, SPCX US)

Space Technology | United States of America

Stock Rating

Industry View

Price target

Shr price, close (Aug 4, 2026)

52-Week Range

Overweight

Attractive

$300.00

$125.33

$225.64-104.83

Fiscal Year Ending

12/25 12/26e 12/27e 12/28e

EPS ($)**

Prior EPS ($)**

P/E

EPS ($)§

Div yld (%)

(1.69)

NM

0.50

0.28

248.4

(0.43)

0.0

2.23

2.18

56.3

0.61

0.0

5.85

6.29

21.4

3.13

0.0

Unless otherwise noted, all metrics are based on Morgan Stanley ModelWare

framework

** = Based on consensus methodology

§ = Consensus data is provided by Refinitiv Estimates

e = Morgan Stanley Research estimates

Quarterly EPS ($)

estimate ($20.5bn)…

• … however the company is guiding to a similar level of capex per quarter for

Quarter

2025

2026e 2026e

Prior Current

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

(0.18)

(0.34)

(0.36)

(0.80)

- (0.84)a

- (0.09)a

0.27

0.19

0.45

0.50

2027e 2027e

Prior Current

0.54

0.55

0.54

0.56

0.54

0.51

0.57

0.61

…