Match Group Inc: MAU Miss Overshadows Continued Tinder Progress

Research evidence excerpt

M

Update

August 5, 2026 04:33 AM GMT

Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC

Match Group Inc | North America

Nathan Feather

Equity Analyst

MAU Miss Overshadows

Continued Tinder Progress

Brian Nowak, CFA

Equity Analyst

Ethan Kim

Research Associate

What’s Changed

Match Group Inc (MTCH.O)

From

To

Price Target

$38.00

$40.00

AlphaSignals Earnings Reaction

Unchanged

In-line

Modest revision higher

Impact to our thesis

Financial results versus consensus

Direction of next 12-month

consensus EPS

Match Group Inc (MTCH.O, MTCH US)

Internet | United States of America

Stock Rating

Industry View

Price target

Shr price, close (Aug 4, 2026)

Mkt cap, curr (mm)

52-Week Range

Equal-weight

Attractive

$40.00

$41.24

$10,090

$41.40-28.81

Source: Company data, Morgan Stanley Research

Lack of improving Tinder MAU growth through 2Q is leading to

a stark ATC decline. However, we think this is an overreaction as

Tinder shows continued progress with DAUs approaching

breakeven and a mid-July reacceleration. Remain EW ($40 PT),

but our conviction in the Tinder bull case is growing.

Tinder MAUs disappointed, which led to the -10% after-hours move...: The key

debate on MTCH is whether Tinder can stabilize its user base. After accelerating to 7% y/y in March and April, MAU growth didn't improve further in 2Q (flat at -7% y/

y). That missed the buy-side bar of -6% y/y with hopes for a July exit rate of -5% y/y

or better. On top of that, the other two flagship metrics Tinder has pointed to are

Sparks/Sparks Coverage, which were flat/decelerated versus 1Q. Taken together,

bulls didn't get the magnitude of improvement hoped for, which led to the afterhours pullback. Note the company is unlikely to provide QTD MAUs going forward

as there is not enough time to adjust for fraud, but the company said July continued

to move in the right direction.

…although this seems like an overreaction as Tinder continues to move in the

right direction - even if it's lumpy: With that being said, Tinder did provide a

number of metrics that showed it moving in the right direction. DAUs accelerated

4pts in 2Q (and are now close to flat). Sparks and Sparks Coverage both accelerated

…