Spotify Technology SA: Pulling the Monetization Lever - Reiterate OW

Research evidence excerpt

M

Idea

August 5, 2026 04:07 AM GMT

Spotify Technology SA | North America

Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC

Sean Diffley, CFA

Equity Analyst

Pulling the Monetization Lever Reiterate OW

Cameron Mansson-Perrone

Equity Analyst

Spotify Technology SA (SPOT.N, SPOT UN)

W

e see efforts around turning MAU strength in prior

quarters into greater revenue growth from Premium subs

in Emerging Markets like India & Indonesia as a long-term

positive. A 'research preview' of the AI remix tool could help

drive enthusiasm leveraging post-training reinforcement

learning.

Key Takeaways

Spotify remains the global market leader in audio, with a track record of

Media & Entertainment | United States of America

Stock Rating

Industry View

Price target

Shr price, close (Aug 4, 2026)

Mkt cap, curr (mm)

52-Week Range

Overweight

In-Line

$640.00

$478.17

€87,503

$748.00-405.00

Fiscal Year Ending

12/25 12/26e 12/27e 12/28e

EPS (€)**

Prior EPS (€)**

P/E

EPS (€)§

Div yld (%)

10.51

47.1

7.22

0.0

11.68

11.65

35.5

12.67

0.0

14.78

15.22

28.1

15.64

0.0

18.75

19.45

22.1

19.42

0.0

Results in 2Q were modestly ahead, while 3Q guidance came in below us

Unless otherwise noted, all metrics are based on Morgan Stanley ModelWare

framework

** = Based on consensus methodology

§ = Consensus data is provided by Refinitiv Estimates

e = Morgan Stanley Research estimates

particularly with +5mm Premium net adds (vs MSe +6.5mm) and +11mm MAU

Quarterly EPS (€)

translating content breadth into improving returns; we see that continuing.

adds (vs MSe ~20mm).

Spotify's lighter MAU outlook is driven by initiatives aimed at improving user

quality & conversion opportunity over time - carrying more upside than risk.

Opex growth in the high-teens y/y on an underlying basis in 2Q/3Q remains

Quarter

2025

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

1.07

(0.42)

4.21

5.52

2026e 2026e

Prior Current

2.65

3.13

3.45a

2.61a

2.61

3.04

2027e 2027e

Prior Current

e = Morgan Stanley Research estimates, a = Actual Company reported data

elevated, but we expect will moderate to low-DD% in 4Q and HSD% in FY27.

Our estimates remain largely unchanged; our $640 PT (~30x fwd. FCF) offers

~35% upside to current levels, and we see a compelling risk/reward that keeps us

OW.

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