Freight Transportation: Truck Stop/TLSS: Smooth Sailing For Some, "A Bumpy Road" For Others

Research evidence excerpt

M

Update

August 5, 2026 04:01 AM GMT

Freight Transportation | North America

Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC

Ravi Shanker

Equity Analyst

Truck Stop/TLSS: Smooth

Sailing For Some, "A Bumpy

Road" For Others

Demand sentiment reversed to outperform, while supply and

rate sentiment remained mixed. Commentary leans positive with

a strong focus on liability following CHRW's recent nuclear

verdict, and 2026 TL rate expectations continue to hold near an

eight-year high as they ticked up slightly to +7.2%.

Nancy Hipp

Research Associate

Madison J Pasterchick

Research Associate

Freight Transportation

North America

Industry View

In-Line

Select quotes from our survey…

• "Truckload carriers continue to take multiple

increases during the contract period. Clearly the

industry has taken on a vindictive approach and

does not have a regard for the consumer who

MS TLQURE: We have updated our QURE model for the month of July and vs. our

ultimately pays the bill. As a shipper during the

prior model to account for a structural shift in market dynamics that has emerged

recession, we did not pursue multiple reductions.

since 2023. Our new base case prediction is that truck rates will move to $2.56 in 6

We did the annual bids. In fact, if a carrier needed

months (currently $2.32) and move to $2.50 in 12 months. Please find the full

help, we would step up. Now the CFO's are

updated MS TLQURE forecast in Section 4, additional detail on our updated model

running the show. Partnerships are being tested

here, and here for more information on the QURE model.

for the most part. Now to be clear, 30-40% of

Sentiment leans positive with demand sentiment reversing to positive while

supply and rate sentiment are mixed. Demand sentiment (both current and

forward) reversed to outperform this update, marking its second outperformance in

the past five updates. We also saw 3 month forward supply sentiment outperform

for the first time in the past four updates and current rate sentiment outperform,

while current supply was inline with typical seasonality and 3 month forward rate

sentiment underperformed typical seasonality for the fourth time in a row.

…