Bank Negara Indonesia: Profit miss as BNI built up provision coverage

Research evidence excerpt

M

Update

August 5, 2026 03:47 AM GMT

Morgan Stanley Asia (Singapore) Pte.+

Bank Negara Indonesia | Asia Pacific

Selvie Jusman, CFA

Equity Analyst

Profit miss as BNI built up

provision coverage

Nick Lord

Equity Analyst

AlphaSignals Earnings Reaction

Unchanged

Meaningful shortfall

Largely unchanged

Impact to our thesis

Financial results versus consensus

Direction of next 12-month

consensus EPS

Source: Company data, Morgan Stanley Research

Key Takeaways

Core profit was stable. The miss was driven by coverage build-up.

In line with expectations, liquidity is a key challenge with lower NIM guidance.

Uncertainties remain around government-related lending and funding.

The stock continues to face overhangs.

2Q26 details:

Profit missed our estimate and consensus. PPoP was slightly below MSe and

consensus due to higher opex. Higher-than-expected provisions drove the wider miss

at the NPAT level.

NII was in line, with stable QoQ NIM and 5% QoQ growth in loans. However, BNI

Bank Negara Indonesia (BBNI.JK, BBNI IJ)

ASEAN Financials | Indonesia

Stock Rating

Industry View

Price target

Up/downside to price target (%)

Shr price, close (Aug 4, 2026)

52-Week Range

Sh out, dil, curr (mn)

Mkt cap, curr (bn)

Equal-weight

In-Line

Rp3,897

6

Rp3,660

Rp4,730-2,990

37,297

Rp136,508

Fiscal Year Ending

12/25 12/26e 12/27e 12/28e

EPS (Rp)**

EPS (Rp)§

EBITDA (Rp bn)

P/E

ROE (%)

Div yld (%)

537.54 561.43 584.28 656.87

548.24 571.40 622.77 686.11

24,396 25,635 26,690 30,010

8.1

6.5

6.3

5.6

12.5

12.4

12.1

13.1

8.0

10.0

9.6

10.8

Unless otherwise noted, all metrics are based on Morgan Stanley ModelWare

framework

** = Based on consensus methodology

§ = Consensus data is provided by Refinitiv Estimates

e = Morgan Stanley Research estimates

expects NIM pressure in 2H from higher funding costs, as liquidity remains tight and

rates are higher. BNI lowers its NIM target from 3.5-3.8% previously to 3.3-3.5%. Its

loan growth target is unchanged at 8-10% YoY as softer loan growth is expected

with tighter liquidity.

Non-interest income and fees were in-line. CIR was higher than expected at 46% vs.

MSe and consensus of 45%, as BNI front-loaded personnel related expenses in 2Q.

Provisions drove the miss.…