Toast, Inc.: 2Q26 Results: Feeding the Flywheel – Reinvesting Behind Proven Demand

Research evidence excerpt

M

Idea

August 5, 2026 04:01 AM GMT

Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC

Toast, Inc. | North America

Elizabeth Porter, CFA

Equity Analyst

2Q26 Results: Feeding the

Flywheel – Reinvesting Behind

Proven Demand

Adam Wood

Equity Analyst

Kathleen A Keyser

Research Associate

Toast, Inc. (TOST.N, TOST UN)

Software | United States of America

AlphaSignals Earnings Reaction

Unchanged

Modest upside

Largely unchanged

Impact to our thesis

Financial results versus consensus

Direction of next 12-month

consensus EPS

Source: Company data, Morgan Stanley Research

Toast reported another strong beat-and-raise, underpinned by

record location adds reinforcing the durability of its core growth

engine at scale. With management reinvesting where demand

and returns are strongest, deeper TAM penetration and

monetization should sustain long-term profitable growth. OW.

Key Takeaways

Toast added record net locations in the quarter (+9.5k), with most of strength

coming from core, highlighting durability of positioning in a competitive market

Horizon 2 ARR is set to nearly double to ~$200M: Retail, Intl, & Enterprise all

scaling faster than core did at similar stage of maturity, underpinning runway

Subs + Fintech GP growth modestly accelerated to +28% YoY in the quarter, with

Stock Rating

Industry View

Price target

Shr price, close (Aug 4, 2026)

Mkt cap, curr (mm)

52-Week Range

Fiscal Year Ending

Overweight

Attractive

$45.00

$33.81

$20,086

$49.66-22.26

12/25 12/26e 12/27e 12/28e

EPS ($)**

Prior EPS ($)**

P/E

EPS ($)§

Div yld (%)

1.09

32.7

0.55

1.41

1.33

24.0

0.88

1.91

1.83

17.7

1.16

2.48

2.37

13.6

1.51

Unless otherwise noted, all metrics are based on Morgan Stanley ModelWare

framework

** = Based on consensus methodology

§ = Consensus data is provided by Refinitiv Estimates

e = Morgan Stanley Research estimates

Quarterly EPS ($)

Quarter

2025

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

0.21

0.27

0.32

0.29

2026e 2026e

Prior Current

0.37

0.34

0.31a

0.40a

0.37

0.34

2027e 2027e

Prior Current

0.42

0.44

0.51

0.46

0.43

0.52

0.50

0.46

e = Morgan Stanley Research estimates, a = Actual Company reported data

FY guide raised to +24% YoY (vs 22% YoY prior)

FY EBITDA guide raised, though mgmt elected to re-invest tariff return benefit,

…