Certara Inc: Messy headlines; no meaningful change to the underlying business

Research evidence excerpt

M

Idea

August 5, 2026 04:01 AM GMT

Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC

Certara Inc | North America

Craig Hettenbach

Equity Analyst

Messy headlines; no meaningful

change to the underlying

business

Jialin Jin

Research Associate

Erin Wright

Equity Analyst

Linda Bolduc

Equity Analyst

What’s Changed

Certara Inc (CERT.O)

From

To

Price Target

$10.00

$9.00

Michelle Foley

Research Associate

Natasha Arya

Research Associate

AlphaSignals Earnings Reaction

Unchanged

Modest shortfall

Modest revision lower

Impact to our thesis

Financial results versus consensus

Direction of next 12-month

consensus EPS

Source: Company data, Morgan Stanley Research

Derek Gross

Research Associate

Katherine A Bennorth

Research Associate

Management reiterated 2026 revenue guidance excluding

impact from the divested Regulatory business and tweaked

EBITDA margin lower by 1% reflecting stranded costs (being

addressed by a 5% workforce reduction). Despite moving pieces,

no major changes to the early-stage turnaround.

No significant change beneath the surface, as headline numbers were influenced

Certara Inc (CERT.O, CERT US)

Healthcare Technology | United States of America

Stock Rating

Industry View

Price target

Shr price, close (Aug 3, 2026)

Mkt cap, curr (mm)

52-Week Range

Equal-weight

In-Line

$9.00

$8.18

$1,263

$13.88-4.45

by the sale of the Regulatory business moving to discontinued ops. Notably, MS

Fiscal Year Ending

12/25 12/26e 12/27e 12/28e

and Street estimates had included contribution from Regulatory in Q2, leading to

EPS ($)**

Prior EPS ($)**

P/E

EPS ($)§

Div yld (%)

(0.01)

NM

0.45

the miss vs. what was reported ( Exhibit 1 ) and 2H implied guidance vs. the Street

( Exhibit 2 ). Software bookings increased by 9% y/y in Q2 , in contrast to a 6%

decline in Services. Management continues to expect 0%-4% y/y revenue growth in

2026, excluding the impact from the Regulatory sale. We lowered our estimates

slightly for the services segment ( Exhibit 3 ), leading to a $1 reduction in PT to $9.

(0.10)

(0.06)

NM

0.38

Quarterly EPS ($)

end market demand, traction in driving AI efficiencies (85% of new code is AI-

Quarter

2025

2026e 2026e

Prior Current

…