Bayer AG: Fundamentals stronger, litigation de-risking still central

Research evidence excerpt

M

Idea

August 5, 2026 03:36 AM GMT

Bayer AG | Europe

Morgan Stanley & Co. International plc+

Thibault Boutherin

Equity Analyst

Fundamentals stronger,

litigation de-risking still central

We reiterate OW on Bayer as Q2 results have confirmed

improvement of the underlying business. The thesis continues to

rely on litigation de-risking, with the fairness hearing on 19

August being the next key event. We have 34% upside to our PT;

we see BAYN as offering one of the best risk-rewards in the

sector.

Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC

Vincent Andrews

Equity Analyst

Morgan Stanley & Co. International plc+

Sarita Kapila

Equity Analyst

Adithya Venkat

Research Associate

Bayer AG (BAYGn.DE, BAYN GY)

Pharmaceuticals | Germany

Key Takeaways

Q2'26 confirms improvements in the underlying business; we sit at the top of the

FY26 guidance for Pharma and Crop Science

We believe a guidance upgrade or at least narrowing to top-end is realistic at

Q3'26 results

The fairness hearing for the glyphosate class action currently scheduled for 19

August is the next key event, although delays are possible

Final decision could come orally at the hearing or via a written order a few weeks

after.

Bayer currently trades at 8.5x 2026 EV/EBITDA vs pharma and consumer peers

at 13x and Corteva trading at 14x; we see meaningful upside potential

Q2 confirmed underlying business improvement, with both Pharma and Crop

likely to deliver around the top-end of the guidance; we reiterate our

Overweight rating on Bayer. We see Q2'26 results as another confirmation of the

improvement of underlying trends in Bayer's business. Pharma beat Q2 expectations

with a better sales mix (new launches vs. eroding products). We expect pharma to

Stock Rating

Industry View

Price target

Shr price, close (Aug 4, 2026)

52-Week Range

Mkt cap, curr (mn)

Overweight

In-Line

€65.00

€48.25

€53.92-24.81

€47,402

Fiscal Year Ending

12/25 12/26e 12/27e 12/28e

Sales / Revenue

(€mn)**

EBITDA (€mn)**

EPS (€)**

ModelWare EPS (€)

Prior EPS (€)**

EPS (€)§

P/E**

EV/EBITDA**

Div yld (%)

FCF yld ratio (%)**

Net debt (€mn)*

Net debt/EBITDA**

ROE (%)**

45,575 46,541 47,920 49,992

9,669

9,867 10,435 11,230

4.91

4.57

4.83

5.49

4.91

4.57

4.83

5.49

4.40

4.79

…