Fresenius Medical Care AG: Risk Reward Update

Research evidence excerpt

M

Update

August 5, 2026 03:30 AM GMT

Morgan Stanley & Co. International plc+

Fresenius Medical Care AG | Europe

Aisyah Noor

Equity Analyst

Risk Reward Update

Fresenius Medical Care AG (FMEG.DE, FME GR)

What’s Changed

Healthcare Services | Germany

Fresenius Medical Care AG (FMEG.DE)

From

To

Price Target

€32.00

€31.00

Bull Case

€46.00

€45.00

Base Case

€32.00

€31.00

Bear Case

€26.00

€25.00

Updated Components

EPS

Bull Base Bear Scenarios

Risk Reward for Fresenius Medical Care AG (FMEG.DE) has been

updated

Stock Rating

Industry View

Price target

Shr price, close (Aug 4, 2026)

52-Week Range

Fiscal Year Ending

EPS (€)**

Prior EPS (€)**

Underweight

In-Line

€31.00

€41.46

€47.86-34.57

12/25 12/26e 12/27e 12/28e

4.29

3.76

3.70

3.71

4.16

4.18

4.56

Unless otherwise noted, all metrics are based on Morgan Stanley ModelWare

framework

** = Based on consensus methodology

e = Morgan Stanley Research estimates

Reason for change

Updating FME model post 2Q26 results, which came ahead of consensus on EBIT

but below on same-market treatment growth. Key changes include: 1) increase in the

FY26 EBIT to account for a higher TDAPA tailwind, 2) decrease in the FY27 EBIT to

reflect dissipation of TDAPA benefit, 3) Value Based Care, which beat expectations

for sales/EBIT in the quarter, 4) FX, which now accounts for a smaller headwind vs

prior. All in, our FY26/27 sales move +1.3%/+1.5% to €19.7bn/€20.4bn, and EBIT

moves +0%/-6.7% to €1,970m/€2,041m. Our PT and Bull/Bear cases move

accordingly to €31/ €45/ €25.

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