Oil & Natural Gas Corp.: All About Natural Gas

Research evidence excerpt

M

Update

August 5, 2026 03:23 AM GMT

Morgan Stanley Asia (Singapore) Pte.+

Oil & Natural Gas Corp. | Asia Pacific

Mayank Maheshwari

Equity Analyst

All About Natural Gas

Morgan Stanley India Company Private Limited+

Pranitha Shetty

Research Associate

AlphaSignals Earnings Reaction

Strengthens our thesis

Meaningful upside

Meaningful revision higher

Hinal Choudhary

Impact to our thesis

Financial results versus consensus

Direction of next 12-month

consensus EPS

Research Associate

Source: Company data, Morgan Stanley Research

Morgan Stanley Asia (Singapore) Pte.+

Vivek Rajamani

Equity Analyst

Key Takeaways

ONGC's standalone earnings beat Street/MSe due to higher crude realizations

Ryan M Heng

(US$99.5/bbl), rising natural gas ASPs (US$8.8/mmbtu) and good cost control

Equity Analyst

Domestic production – flat QoQ – declined ~4% YoY with reservoir issues at KG98/2, offshore pipeline replacement and new field commissioning-related

shutdowns

Premium priced new-well gas contributed 38% of gas revenue; one of the

ONGC's underappreciated earnings lever. ONGC gas ASP is now one of the

Oil & Natural Gas Corp. (ONGC.NS, ONGC IS)

highest globally

India Oil & Gas | India

Global operations was profitable with production up 1% YoY; petrochemicals

While F1Q27 did little to alleviate near-term volume concerns, we believe execution

Stock Rating

Industry View

Price target

Up/downside to price target (%)

Shr price, close (Aug 4, 2026)

Sh out, dil, curr (mn)

Mkt cap, curr (mn)

EV, curr (mn)

Avg daily trading value (mn)

risk is gradually reducing. The ongoing Western Offshore investment cycle, BP's

Fiscal Year Ending

03/26 03/27e 03/28e 03/29e

expanded technical partnership and ramp-up of key projects provide better visibility

EPS (Rs)**

Prior EPS (Rs)**

EPS (Rs)§

Revenue, net (Rs bn)

EBITDA (Rs bn)

ModelWare net inc (Rs

bn)

P/E

ROE (%)

EV/EBITDA

Div yld (%)

33.27 48.59 47.78 48.70

34.60 43.56 43.34 43.91

6,110.5 8,939.5 8,031.9 8,254.6

1,031.2 1,115.3 1,310.6 1,341.3

418.6 611.3 601.1 612.7

EBITDA loss due to low limited feedstock availability and 75% utilization

ONGC's reserve replacement ratio, higher natural gas price realization, and faster

…