Archer Daniels Midland: Resetting Risk-Reward; Upgrade to Equal-weight

Research evidence excerpt

M

Idea

August 5, 2026 03:01 AM GMT

Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC

Archer Daniels Midland | North America

Steven K Haynes, CFA

Equity Analyst

Resetting Risk-Reward; Upgrade

to Equal-weight

Vincent Andrews

Equity Analyst

Archer Daniels Midland (ADM.N, ADM UN)

What’s Changed

Agricultural Products | United States of America

Archer Daniels Midland (ADM.N)

From

To

Rating

Underweight

Equal-weight

Price Target

$60.00

$79.00

We thought underappreciated risk in Carb Solutions would

offset upside in Crushing. Exiting 2Q, we think it's safe to say we

were wrong. We step back to the sidelines and now see a more

balanced bull-bear skew going forward. PT raised to $79.

Key Takeaways

Upgrade ADM to EW from UW as stronger 1H execution reduces prior

idiosyncratic downside risk and creates a more balanced bull-bear setup going

forward.

What we got wrong: AS&O execution was stronger than expected and ethanol/

decarb upside more than offset S&S weakness.

Raise Base/Bear/Bull scenarios to $79/$50/$110 (vs. $60/$38/$95) on flow

through of higher EPS, target multiples and cap allocation optionality.

Stock Rating

Industry View

Price target

Shr price, close (Aug 4, 2026)

Mkt cap, curr (mm)

52-Week Range

Fiscal Year Ending

Equal-weight

In-Line

$79.00

$79.87

$52,397

$88.46-53.63

12/25 12/26e 12/27e 12/28e

EPS ($)**

Prior EPS ($)**

P/E

EPS ($)§

Div yld (%)

3.43

16.8

3.38

3.5

5.38

4.57

14.8

4.80

2.6

5.60

5.00

14.3

5.40

2.7

5.70

5.05

14.0

5.40

2.8

Unless otherwise noted, all metrics are based on Morgan Stanley ModelWare

framework

** = Based on consensus methodology

§ = Consensus data is provided by Refinitiv Estimates

e = Morgan Stanley Research estimates

Quarterly EPS ($)

Quarter

2025

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

0.70

0.93

0.92

0.87

2026e 2026e

Prior Current

1.24

0.71a

1.84a

1.49a

1.33

2027e 2027e

Prior Current

e = Morgan Stanley Research estimates, a = Actual Company reported data

Maintain OW rating on Bunge as Viterra synergies remain underappreciated

despite ADM’s stronger results and Bunge’s lighter beat-and-raise.

Moving to EW as our prior UW thesis had reflected idiosyncractic risk that has

failed to materialize and is no longer likely to play out going forward. Our UW

…