Alpha Bank SA: Investor Day: How to Surprise

Research evidence excerpt

M

Idea

August 5, 2026 03:00 AM GMT

Morgan Stanley & Co. International plc+

Alpha Bank SA | Europe

Noemi Peruch

Equity Analyst

Investor Day: How to Surprise

Alpha Bank SA (ACBr.AT, ALPHA GA)

What’s Changed

Banks | Greece

Alpha Bank SA (ACBr.AT)

From

To

Price Target

€4.90

€5.00

We identify the levers Alpha could pull to surprise in the

November Investor Day. We remain Overweight.

What to expect from the Investor Day in November 2026?

• 4-5% higher consensus EPS, driven by better fee income and CoR. We see

fee income 2-5% higher than VA cons, as we embed announced M&A, adding

c€65m fee income in 2028 (see Exhibit 75 in our initiation note). We estimate

CoR at c40bp vs 45bp in guidance and VA consensus, thanks to lower

organic CoR and lower SRTs and servicing costs. We continue to embed 50bp

rate hikes in 9M26 and 50bp rate cuts in 2H27 (as per our economists' view)

Stock Rating

Industry View

Price target

Shr price, close (Aug 4, 2026)

52-Week Range

Mkt cap, curr (mn)

Fiscal Year Ending

EPS (€)**

P/E**

Tang BVPS (€)

P/tang BV

Return on avg tang eqty

(%)

Div yld (%)

Prior EPS (€)**

Overweight

Attractive

€5.00

€4.49

€4.49-2.95

€10,396

12/25 12/26e 12/27e 12/28e

0.36

10.0

2.98

1.2

12.6

0.41

10.9

3.16

1.4

13.4

0.52

8.7

3.54

1.3

15.4

0.57

7.9

3.89

1.2

15.2

3.1

3.3

0.42

5.1

0.50

5.8

0.56

Unless otherwise noted, all metrics are based on Morgan Stanley ModelWare

framework

** = Based on consensus methodology

e = Morgan Stanley Research estimates

and c10bp customer spread compression p.a, which allows us to be 2% above

VA consensus NII in 2027E and in line in 2028E. Hence, pricing the forward

rate curve would grant further upside risk.

• <€0.1bn further DTA write-up. In line with what we anticipated in our

previous note, Alpha wrote up €120m DTA in Q2 2026. At the beginning of

2026, the bank had €0.5bn off-BS DTAs (150bp CET1 ratio), of which

€0.25bn expiring in 2026 and €0.2bn in 2027. With the business plan, we see

room for s further c€0.1bn DTA write-up (c25bp CET1).

• increasing payout while CET1 remains above 14.5% in 2028E. With 2Q26

results Alpha hinted at an increasing payout ratio in 2025-27E and SBBs.

…