National Bank of Greece SA: Awaiting excess capital deployment

Research evidence excerpt

M

Update

August 5, 2026 03:00 AM GMT

Morgan Stanley & Co. International plc+

National Bank of Greece SA | Europe

Noemi Peruch

Equity Analyst

Awaiting excess capital

deployment

National Bank of Greece SA (NBGr.AT, ETE GA)

Banks | Greece

What’s Changed

National Bank of Greece SA (NBGr.AT)

From

To

Price Target

€17.20

€17.60

We update estimates post 2Q26 and reiterate our Equal-weight

rating.

Fine-tuning estimates. We upgrade net profit by 2-4-1% in 2026, as we boost NII

estimates by 1%, upgrade fee income in 2027-28 thanks to rental income (c€20m),

trim tax rate and we add the €10m annual contribution for the refurbishment of

Greek universities. We see 2026E EPS at €1.43, in line with VA consensus and with >

€1.40 guidance. We are in line with VA consensus net profit in 2027, where we are

5% higher on NII and fees but envisage a worse tax rate (25%). On CoR we are 5bp

Stock Rating

Industry View

Price target

Shr price, close (Aug 4, 2026)

52-Week Range

Mkt cap, curr (mn)

Fiscal Year Ending

EPS (€)**

Prior EPS (€)**

P/E**

Tang BVPS (€)

P/tang BV

Return on avg tang eqty

(%)

Div yld (%)

Equal-weight

Attractive

€17.60

€16.47

€16.80-11.67

€14,958

12/25 12/26e 12/27e 12/28e

1.31

1.38

9.9

9.18

1.4

14.4

1.36

1.37

12.1

9.10

1.8

13.9

1.63

1.67

10.1

9.44

1.7

16.7

1.67

1.72

9.8

10.18

1.6

16.3

3.9

4.0

5.4

6.1

Unless otherwise noted, all metrics are based on Morgan Stanley ModelWare

framework

** = Based on consensus methodology

e = Morgan Stanley Research estimates

below consensus and guidance, as we think NBG has plenty of room to reduce the

1.2% coverage ratio on performing loans.

Additional color on 2Q26 not included in 2Q26 First Take: 2% core beat, guidance

in line with consensus

• Deposits grew by €3.0bn QoQ, which was allocated to €1.3bn loans, €0.4bn

securities, and €1.3bn higher liquidity at the ECB/intrabank. This means more

room to boost NII in 2H26-2028, as NBG can deploy liquidity at higher

margins and still leverage on its low LDR, without the need to chase

deposits.

• NBG saw deposits growing by 5.5%, in line with TPEIR, but below ALPHA and

EUROB, due to a softer pricing push on term deposits in our view ( Exhibit

4 ).…