Eurobank Ergasias SA: Beat-and-raise path to continue

Research evidence excerpt

M

Update

August 5, 2026 03:00 AM GMT

Eurobank Ergasias SA | Europe

Morgan Stanley & Co. International plc+

Noemi Peruch

Equity Analyst

Beat-and-raise path to continue

Eurobank Ergasias SA (EURBr.AT, EUROB GA)

We update estimates post 2Q26 and reiterate our Overweight

rating.

Additional color on 2Q26 not included in 2Q26 First Take: in-line results

• Eurobank was the only Greek bank that significantly upgraded the loan

growth target in 2026 (+18%)

• Assets grew by €5bn QoQ, thanks to €4bn higher deposits and higher debt

issued. The new liquidity was allocated to +€1.2bn loans , €0.8bn securities,

and c€3bn higher intrabank. Loan to deposit ratio declined by c2pp QoQ,

driven by Greece, as international remained stable. This means more room to

boost NII in 2H26-2028, as EUROB can deploy liquidity at higher margins and

still leverage on the low LDR in Cyprus.

• EUROB grew deposits the most in Greece (+7% QoQ), but loans increased

Banks | Greece

Stock Rating

Industry View

Price target

Shr price, close (Aug 4, 2026)

52-Week Range

Mkt cap, curr (mn)

Fiscal Year Ending

EPS (€)**

P/E**

Tang BVPS (€)

P/tang BV

Return on avg tang eqty

(%)

Div yld (%)

Overweight

Attractive

€4.90

€4.54

€4.54-3.13

€16,482

12/25 12/26e 12/27e 12/28e

0.38

9.0

2.19

1.6

17.0

0.42

10.7

2.35

1.9

19.7

0.51

8.9

2.71

1.7

20.9

0.54

8.4

3.05

1.5

20.8

3.4

3.3

4.5

5.0

Unless otherwise noted, all metrics are based on Morgan Stanley ModelWare

framework

** = Based on consensus methodology

e = Morgan Stanley Research estimates

the least ( Exhibit 4 -5), due to household loans down by 4% QoQ.

• Eurobank was the only Greek bank reporting Stage 3 stock and NPE ratio

down QoQ, while coverage was up by c50bp. ( Exhibit 6 )

Fine-tuning estimates: we cut 2026 adj EPS by 2% on lower contribution from

Eurolife. given delays in completion. We upgrade 2027E adj EPS by 3% on NII and

lower CoR. We are 5% above VA consensus net profit in 2027E and 2% ahead in

2028E, driven by higher NII (3%), fees (4-5%) and slightly lower CoR. We continue to

embed 50bp rate hikes in 9M26 and 50bp rate cuts in 2H27 (as per our economists'

view) and c25bp customer spread compression in 2027-28. We position 23% above

…