Astera Labs Inc: Substantial upside driven by the Scorpio X ramp

Research evidence excerpt

M

Idea

August 5, 2026 02:41 AM GMT

Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC

Astera Labs Inc | North America

Joseph Moore

Equity Analyst

Substantial upside driven by the

Scorpio X ramp

Ella Tulchinsky

Research Associate

Mason Wayne

Research Associate

What’s Changed

Astera Labs Inc (ALAB.O)

From

To

Price Target

$335.00

$382.00

Shane Brett

Equity Analyst

Nicole Kozhukhov

Research Associate

AlphaSignals Earnings Reaction

Strengthens our thesis

Meaningful upside

Meaningful revision higher

Impact to our thesis

Financial results versus consensus

Direction of next 12-month

consensus EPS

Source: Company data, Morgan Stanley Research

Astera guides 3q revenues to $550M vs. consensus $417M as

the switch cycle takes off in earnest and other parts of the

business remain robust. Customer concentration and

repeatability continue to be debated but the company continues

to execute.

Key Takeaways

Q3 guide implies ~40% q/q growth, with Scorpio becoming the largest product

family as the lead X-Series program enters volume production.

Astera Labs Inc (ALAB.O, ALAB US)

Semiconductors | United States of America

Stock Rating

Industry View

Price target

Shr price, close (Aug 4, 2026)

Mkt cap, curr (mm)

52-Week Range

12/25 12/26e 12/27e 12/28e

EPS ($)**

Prior EPS ($)**

P/E

EPS ($)§

Div yld (%)

1.84

175.0

1.78

broaden the growth runway beyond the initial Scorpio ramp.

Quarter

2025

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

0.33

0.44

0.49

0.58

Stay OW, raise PT to $382

3.99

2.88

144.1

3.07

5.83

3.70

97.0

4.56

6.93

4.22

79.4

5.93

Unless otherwise noted, all metrics are based on Morgan Stanley ModelWare

framework

** = Based on consensus methodology

§ = Consensus data is provided by Refinitiv Estimates

e = Morgan Stanley Research estimates

Quarterly EPS ($)

platforms; we still view Trainium4 as a key socket to watch.

Overweight

Attractive

$382.00

$361.67

$70,525

$499.48-97.89

Fiscal Year Ending

CY27 revenue rises to nearly $3B as UALink, CXL, optical and custom solutions

Amazon concentration remains the key risk, though exposure spans multiple

2026e 2026e

Prior Current

0.73

0.84

0.61a

0.80a

1.19

1.39

2027e 2027e

Prior Current

0.88

0.91

0.95

0.96

1.38

1.45

1.61

e = Morgan Stanley Research estimates, a = Actual Company reported data

…