Allegiant Travel: Plenty Going On + To Get Excited About

Research evidence excerpt

M

Idea

August 5, 2026 12:07 AM GMT

Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC

Allegiant Travel | North America

Ravi Shanker

Equity Analyst

Plenty Going On + To Get

Excited About

Madison J Pasterchick

Research Associate

Nancy Hipp

Research Associate

AlphaSignals Earnings Reaction

Allegiant Travel (ALGT.O, ALGT US)

Unchanged

Meaningful upside

Modest revision lower

Impact to our thesis

Financial results versus consensus

Direction of next 12-month

consensus EPS

Source: Company data, Morgan Stanley Research

ALGT delivered a big beat in 2Q and, adjusted for fuel, the FY

guide is well ahead of expectations as well. The early signs postcombination look good and there are several catalysts, both

integration and idiosyncratic, coming up (including the Investor

Day).

Key Takeaways

Airlines | United States of America

Stock Rating

Industry View

Price target

Shr price, close (Aug 4, 2026)

Mkt cap, curr (mm)

52-Week Range

Fiscal Year Ending

EPS ($)**

EPS ($)§

ModelWare EPS ($)

Equal-weight

Attractive

$115.00

$105.09

$1,913

$123.63-42.56

12/25 12/26e 12/27e 12/28e

3.68

2.96

3.76

6.07

7.66

6.10

15.64

12.07

15.64

16.86

14.64

16.86

Unless otherwise noted, all metrics are based on Morgan Stanley ModelWare

framework

** = Based on consensus methodology

§ = Consensus data is provided by Refinitiv Estimates

e = Morgan Stanley Research estimates

ALGT rounded out Airlines earnings with a big beat, coming in 62%/55% above

MSe/cons on EBIT and well above their recent pre-announcement.

A FY guide for the combined entity was introduced at >$6 in EPS, consistent with

MSe though below cons. $7.35,

However, we note the $3.70 fuel assumption is considerably more conservative

(equating to ~$4 in EPS), adjusted for which, the guide would have been well

ahead.

The focus will be on hitting operational and synergy milestones in the coming

quarters as ALGT has a strong list of deliverable catalysts ahead.

All eyes will be on the Dec Investor Day for LT targets; until then, we continue to

like the story, even if we see spicier risk-rewards elsewhere in the space.

Remain EW. ALGT rounded out Airlines earnings with a big beat, coming in

62%/55% above MSe/cons on EBIT and well above their recent pre-announcement.

…