Allison Transmission Holdings Inc: Risk Reward Update

Research evidence excerpt

M

Update

August 5, 2026 12:33 AM GMT

Allison Transmission Holdings Inc | North America

Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC

Angel Castillo

Equity Analyst

Risk Reward Update

Allison Transmission Holdings Inc (ALSN.N, ALSN US)

What’s Changed

Machinery & Construction | United States of America

Allison Transmission Holdings Inc (ALSN.N)

From

To

Price Target

$130.00

$132.00

Base Case

$130.00

$132.00

Updated Components

EPS

Bull Base Bear Scenarios

Risk Reward for Allison Transmission Holdings Inc (ALSN.N) has

been updated

Stock Rating

Industry View

Price target

Shr price, close (Aug 4, 2026)

52-Week Range

Fiscal Year Ending

EPS ($)**

Prior EPS ($)**

Equal-weight

Attractive

$132.00

$122.62

$136.98-77.12

12/25 12/26e 12/27e 12/28e

8.38

8.34

10.19

10.02

10.70

10.72

12.38

12.21

Unless otherwise noted, all metrics are based on Morgan Stanley ModelWare

framework

** = Based on consensus methodology

e = Morgan Stanley Research estimates

Reason for change

Raising PT to $132, reflecting 13x (unch.) on FY26 MSe EPS of $10.19 (was $10.02).

For 3Q26/FY26, respectively, we estimate adj. EBITDA of $396m/$1,552m (was

$380m/$1,522m) and adj. EPS of $2.35/$10.19 (was $2.43/$10.02). Improving

industry truck build forecasts and better Defense growth in FY26 are offset by

price/cost headwinds throughout FY26 before reversing in FY27.

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