Raia Drogasil SA: Cash Generation and GLP-1 Signal Outshines Slightly Weaker Bottom-line

Research evidence excerpt

M

Update

August 5, 2026 12:37 AM GMT

Morgan Stanley C.T.V.M. S.A.+

Raia Drogasil SA | Latin America

Mauricio I Cepeda

Equity Analyst

Cash Generation and GLP-1

Signal Outshines Slightly

Weaker Bottom-line

Artur D Alves

Equity Analyst

Lucas Nagano

Research Associate

Raia Drogasil SA (RADL3.SA, RADL3 BZ)

Top Pick

AlphaSignals Earnings Reaction

LatAm Healthcare | Brazil

Strengthens our thesis

In-line

Largely unchanged

Impact to our thesis

Financial results versus consensus

Direction of next 12-month

consensus EPS

Source: Company data, Morgan Stanley Research

Stock Rating

Industry View

Price target

Shr price, close (Aug 4, 2026)

Mkt cap, curr (mm)

52-Week Range

Overweight

In-Line

R$26.00

R$19.41

R$34,013

R$27.13-13.31

Key Takeaways

GLP-1 drove 24.3% Branded Rx growth, with new-launch volumes offsetting

lower prices.

MSSS reached 10.9%, 1.2p.p. above MSe and 2.2p.p. above consensus.

OCF surged 115% YoY to R$779mn, 124% above MSe, on better working capital.

Gross revenue was 1% above MSe, while adjusted EBITDA was 1% below.

Adjusted net income ex-4Bio was 4% below MSe, but cash flow and GLP-1 trends

offset the miss.

GLP-1 remains the key top-line driver, with volume elasticity becoming

increasingly visible. Branded Rx sales grew 24.3% YoY, materially ahead of

consolidated sales, with GLP-1s as the main driver. More importantly, recent

launches are expanding access, with higher volumes already offsetting lower

average prices, according to management. As a cross-read, this is consistent with

Pague Menos’s commentary today, which pointed to a 50% reduction in

semaglutide’s average price and a 155% increase in sales volume (units/day)

comparing Jul/26 levels to 1Q26 . This reinforces our thesis that GLP-1 growth

should remain strong as pricing normalizes, with an additional leg of market

expansion likely as semaglutide copies scale in 2H26 (see Don't 'Weight': Brazil’s

Semaglutide LOE Creates Opportunities For HYPE3 & RADL3 and Re-shapes

Consumption). Underlying trends also remained healthy outside GLP-1, with MSSS

reaching 10.9%, 1.2 p.p. above MSe, while 2.2 p.p. above consensus. Market share

…