GLOBAL RESEARCH ARCHIVE
Mexico Airports: Shifting Tides; Upgrading GAP to EW
Research evidence excerpt
M
Foundation
August 5, 2026 01:42 AM GMT
Mexico Airports | Latin America
Morgan Stanley México, Casa de Bolsa, S.A. de C.V.+
Jens Spiess, CFA
Equity Analyst
Shifting Tides; Upgrading GAP
to EW
Beyond a still-bumpy 2H26, 1Q27 schedules point to a clear split:
GAP inflects, OMA stays strong and ASUR still lags. Upgrade
GAP to EW (US$225/ADS PT vs. US$210 previously). OMA
(OW) remains our preferred name in the space; reiterate UW
ASUR.
Key Takeaways
1Q27 schedules offer the first credible read-through for a better FY27, but
investors must first navigate a still-bumpy 2H26
1Q27 OAG seats: GAP +10.9% Y/Y, OMA +9.3%, ASUR +2.7% LfL — GAP inflects,
OMA stays strong, ASUR slightly recovers but still lags
Morgan Stanley C.T.V.M. S.A.+
Joao Pedro Franco dos Santos
Research Associate
Gustavo Soares
Research Associate
Latin America Transportation & Infrastructure
Latin America
Industry View
In-Line
What’s Changed
GAP Airports (PAC.N)
Rating
From
To
Underweight Equal-weight
Price Target
US$210.00
US$225.00
ASUR (ASR.N)
Price Target
From
US$315.00
To
US$280.00
OMA (OMAB.O)
Price Target
From
US$120.00
To
US$125.00
FY27 consensus looks expos+ed: GAP +5.1% has upside risk, OMA +6.0% looks
supported, while ASUR +4.9% still appears stretched
GAP valuation is more balanced, not cheap yet: >30% peer premium, down from
>40% a month ago but still above its 25% historical average
Upgrade GAP to EW — better traffic outlook balances risk-reward, but valuation
caps upside; OMA (OW) remains our preferred name in the space; Reiterate UW
ASUR
The 1Q27 capacity setup is turning more constructive — but not before a bumpy
2H26... Following fuel-driven cuts and operator-specific headwinds throughout
2026 — including security concerns at PVR, the prolonged Hurricane Melissa
recovery in Jamaica, sargassum and destination fatigue at CUN — near-term
schedules remain mixed in 3Q, particularly for GAP, where scheduled capacity
declines 6.6% Y/Y in September, while OAG points to broadly flat capacity across
the three groups in 4Q (see Exhibit 1 ). 1Q27, however, marks an important
inflection point, with current OAG schedules pointing to +10.9% Y/Y seat growth for
…
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