KDDI: Jun Q Preview: Full Benefit From Price Hikes; Potentially Most Reassuring Results Among Three Major Telcos

Research evidence excerpt

M

Idea

August 5, 2026 01:00 AM GMT

Morgan Stanley MUFG Securities Co., Ltd.+

KDDI (9433) | Japan

Tetsuro Tsusaka, CFA

Equity Analyst

Jun Q Preview: Full Benefit

From Price Hikes; Potentially

Most Reassuring Results Among

Three Major Telcos

We forecast the most stable results among the three major

telcos. The full benefit of last year’s price hikes should lift ARPU,

with Personal and Business driving consolidated OP growth of

12% YoY. Stable earnings should support the share price.

Focus 1: Potentially the most stable results among the three major telcos, with

last year’s price hikes driving solid profit growth. Our forecast: Consolidated OP

+12% YoY.

Focus 2: Mobile KPIs. The full benefit of price hikes should lift ARPU and

revenue. ARPU +5% YoY.

Focus 3: Segment profit. Both Personal (mobile) and Business (enterprise)

should contribute to profit growth. Personal OP +13% YoY; Business OP +12% YoY.

Expected share price impact: Potentially the most reassuring results among the

three major telcos. Stable earnings throughout the year should support steady

share price performance for now.

Exhibit 1:

Summary

F3/27 1Q

Consol.

OP

EBITDA

Personal

OP

EBITDA

Business

OP

EBITDA

KPIs

Mobile revenue

Mobile ARPU

No. of main subs

Net add of main subs

No. of smartphone subs

Net add of smartphone subs

MSe

Mkt.

MSe yoy

Mkt yoy

jpy bil

292

478

284

466

12.5%

10.6%

9.5%

7.9%

jpy bil

226

381

12.5%

10.1%

jpy bil

64

94

11.6%

10.9%

jpy bil

jpy

'000

514

4,550

42,341

0

33,733

827

4.9%

4.8%

0.2%

2.5%

Source: Company data, Morgan Stanley Research, e = Morgan Stanley Research estimates, mkt=Visible Alpha

Luyuan Yang, CFA

Equity Analyst

Keiji Nishimura

Research Associate

KDDI (9433.T, 9433 JT)

Telecommunications | Japan

Stock Rating

Industry View

Price target

Up/downside to price target (%)

Shr price, close (Aug 4, 2026)

Mkt cap, curr, basic (bn)

Div yld (03/27e) (%)

Overweight

In-Line

¥3,000

4

¥2,874

¥10,939.6

2.9

Fiscal Year Ending

03/26 03/27e 03/28e 03/29e

Revenue, net (¥bn)

Operating profit (¥bn)*

Recurring profit (¥bn)*

Net income (¥bn)*

EPS, basic (¥)*

Prior EPS, basic (¥)*

EPS (¥)**

Prior EPS (¥)**

P/E, basic*

P/BV, basic

ROE (%)*

EV/EBITDA, basic

6,071.9 6,410.5 6,544.9 6,677.9

…