Intrepid Potash: 2Q26 Gross Profit Ahead; FY26 Production Guides Raised, Capex Cut

Research evidence excerpt

M

Update

August 5, 2026 01:50 AM GMT

Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC

Intrepid Potash | North America

Vincent Andrews

Equity Analyst

2Q26 Gross Profit Ahead; FY26

Production Guides Raised,

Capex Cut

AlphaSignals Earnings Reaction

Unchanged

Modest upside

Modest revision higher

Impact to our thesis

Financial results versus consensus

Direction of next 12-month

consensus EPS

Justin T Pellegrino

Research Associate

Intrepid Potash (IPI.N, IPI UN)

Chemicals | United States of America

Stock Rating

Industry View

Price target

Shr price, close (Aug 4, 2026)

Mkt cap, curr (mm)

52-Week Range

Underweight

In-Line

NA

$33.96

$453

$50.34-22.84

Source: Company data, Morgan Stanley Research

We expect a positive response to the 2Q gross profit beat vs MSe/cons as well as

the increased Potash and Trio production guidance. However, 3Q guidance is

lower than expected in potash sales volume and price, partially offset by higher

Trio volume/price.

1. What drove the beat in 2Q? Potash net sales beat MSe by 9.7% (on a ~7%

volume beat and ~2% price beat), Trio net sales missed MSe by 8.6% (on a ~7%

volume miss and ~2% price miss). Potash gross profit beat MSe by 10.6% despite

COGS/ton running 1.5% above MSe; Trio gross profit beat MSe by 7.9%, driven

entirely by COGS/ton coming in 13.8% below MSe.

2. Context of the quarter. Trio COGS/ton was the lowest since 4Q19, which the

company ties to the new continuous miner and mill optimization — the second

consecutive quarter of improvement (company reported COGS/ton down

sequentially from $229 in 1Q26 to $205 in 2Q26). Potash's volume beat versus MSe

came despite a YoY volume decline that the company attributes to softer grower

sentiment tied to global geopolitical conditions, with demand softening further late

in the quarter.

3. Guidance Raised. FY26 potash production raised to 290–300kt (295kt midpoint)

from 270–285kt (277.5kt midpoint), and above MSe of 280kt — a 6.3% raise at the

midpoint versus prior guidance, 5.4% above MSe. FY26 Trio production raised to

295–305kt (300kt midpoint) from 285–300kt (292.5kt midpoint), and above MSe

of 292kt — a 2.6% raise at the midpoint versus prior guidance, 2.7% above MSe.

…