NA Trucks Class 8 Orders of 22,100 Units, Down 30% MoM & Up 68% YoY in July

Research evidence excerpt

J P M O R G A N

North America Equity Research

05 August 2026

NA Trucks

Class 8 Orders of 22,100 Units, Down 30% MoM & Up

68% YoY in July

ACT Research released preliminary NA truck net orders for July 2026. Class 8 net

orders were 22,100 units, down 30% MoM and up 68% YoY. July’s

preliminary data show a 54% YoY increase in Class 5-8 orders to 40.4K units.

Seasonally adjusted net orders (per JPMe) of Class 8 trucks came in at an

implied ~29,492 units (~354K SAAR), down 30% MoM and up 67% YoY.

Meanwhile, preliminary July NA Classes 5-7 net orders were down 13% MoM

and up 41% YoY (vs. -17% in Jul‘25) to 18.3K units. The truck and components

group has outperformed the broader market YTD (up 19% vs. the S&P 500 Index

up 13%). In our current coverage, truck orders have the largest incremental impact

on PCAR, CMI, ALSN (primarily Class 6-7 and Class 8 straight trucks), and

ATMU.

Class 8 net orders down 30% MoM. For July, Class 8 net orders were 22,100

units, down 30% MoM and up 68% YoY. Seasonally adjusted net orders (per

JPMe) in the month came in at an implied ~29,492 units (~354K SAAR), down

30% MoM and up 67% YoY.

Class 5-7 net orders down 13% MoM. For July, Class 5-7 net orders were

18,300 units, down 13% MoM and up 41% YoY. Seasonally adjusted net orders

(per JPMe) in the month came in at an implied ~21,756 units (~261K SAAR),

down 6% MoM and up 41% YoY.

Leading indicator improved sequentially. According to our analysis, the

ISM New Orders Index tends to be the best leading indicator of future freight

trends and truck demand. Specifically, the YoY change in ISM New Orders has

historically led the YoY change in the Cass Freight Index (our preferred broadbased indicator of freight trends) by six to nine months. ISM New Orders

increased 0.7pts MoM to 56.7 in July, up 19.4% YoY, representing the 7th

consecutive month in expansionary territory (>50). The Cass Freight

Shipments Index was down 3.1% MoM and down 4.1% YoY in June (the latest

month available). However, we note that the Cass Freight Shipments Index

includes rail freight and may be less of an indicator of truckload freight, so we

also watch the ATA Total Loads SA Index, which was down 0.2% MoM and

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