Independent Power Producers: Sparks & Quarks IPP Weakness Ensues, Awaiting Rebuttals During Earnings Calls; ERCOT Batch Zero Uncertainty; Regulatory Updates Top of Mind; News Flow; IPPs Lag Market

Research evidence excerpt

J P M O R G A N

North America Equity Research

05 August 2026

Independent Power Producers:

Sparks & Quarks

IPP Weakness Ensues, Awaiting Rebuttals During

Earnings Calls; ERCOT Batch Zero Uncertainty;

Regulatory Updates Top of Mind; News Flow; IPPs Lag

Market

Sentiment check: looking ahead toward earnings rebuttals as political

uncertainty bucks previously improving backdrop. We reiterate our

positive IPP view, where we see still see a multi-year favorable supply/demand

balance accruing value to the group in one form or another. This week, NRG’s

(not covered) post-earnings performance lagged on TX batch zero uncertainty

and the print falling short of investor expectations for a firm data center deal

announcement. Looking toward earnings this week, we expect a solid VST

print grounded by East and Texas segment strength, and look for details on the

Helix partnership, Beaver Valley colocation, contracting dynamics, the RBP

and PJM reforms, and broader regulatory developments. TLN’s menu of YoY

tailwinds stand partially offset by an increase in O&M and G&A expenses,

though focus remains squarely on regulatory commentary, which we see

calming a skittish market. On CEG, we see seasonality shaping results, and

investor attention zeroing in on contracting commentary post the WMT deal.

We see 2Q26 call commentary providing some relief, though September’s

scheduled regulatory breakthroughs (PJM RBP and possibly ERCOT Batch

Zero) drive incremental clarity for the market.

Head of North America Power,

Utilities, Midstream, LNG, and

Nuclear

IPPs (-1.1%) outperformed Utilities (-3.1%), but lagged the broader

market (+4.2%) over the past week.

Francina Kolluri

Figure 1: Weekly Dashboard

Total Return

CEG

NRG

TLN

VST

IPPs

S&P Utilities

S&P 500

AMNA

1Wk

2.9%

-7.9%

4.3%

-3.6%

-1.1%

-3.1%

4.2%

-0.3%

YTD

-24.1%

-25.8%

-9.3%

-11.0%

-17.5%

4.7%

13.8%

25.1%

2026 ATC Forwards

PJM West

PJM East

PJM Ni Hub

ISO NE (MA)

ERCOT North

ERCOT West

Spot Commodity

Henry Hub Gas

1Wk

-4.7%

-5.2%

-10.4%

-7.8%

-8.9%

1.5%

1Wk

-1.9%

Price

$62.75

$62.48

$37.70

$34.96

$34.18

$75.37

Price

$3.18

2027 ATC Forwards

PJM West

PJM East

PJM NiHub

ISO NE (MA)

ERCOT North

ERCOT West

Spot Commodity

Tetco M3

1Wk

-1.5%

…