United Breweries Limited Healthy volume growth, though margin recovery awaited

Research evidence excerpt

J P M O R G A N

Asia Pacific Equity Research

06 August 2026

United Breweries Limited

Healthy volume growth, though margin recovery

awaited

Underweight

UBBW.NS, UBBL IN

Price (05 Aug 26):Rs1,390.60

Price Target (Sep-27):Rs1,300.00

We update our UBBL model post Q1 earnings (First Take) which were mixed.

Volume grew 9% (sell-out +13%) but reported revenue growth stood at +7% on an

adverse sourcing mix, while EBITDA and PAT fell -9% y/y impacted by lower

gross margin. Management retained its double-digit FY27 revenue growth

ambition, led by a revival in beer category growth following policy reforms in

select states and pricing interventions undertaken across 22 states. A favorable

base in coming quarters (Q2/Q3) should further aid near DD vol growth. Even as

UBBL noted that near-term challenges on cost inflation will continue, it now

expects moderation in the impact of the West Asia conflict to Rs 3.5-4bn (from Rs

4-5bn previously). Regulatory tailwinds and continued capex support long-term

growth, but near-term visibility remains clouded by inflation-led margin pressure

and elevated competitive intensity. We lower FY28/29E EBITDA by 6-7% on the

back of lowered margins.

Consumer, Retail, Media

HSD vol growth likely for FY27. Despite +9% volume growth, reported

price/mix was -2%, dragged by the higher share of contract-brewed volumes

(~4% impact); underlying price-mix was +4%. This drag from the sourcing

mix is likely to persist as UBBL will continue to use contract breweries

opportunistically. There was a 4pp gap between sell-in and sell-out volumes as

UBBL reduced in-market inventory to improve its cash position and ensure

fresher beer in the trade. This is largely one-off as Dec’26 inventory levels will

not be materially lower y/y.

Style Exposure

The category inflection is encouraging, but the strength is uneven and

competition is sharpening. Management noted favourable reforms in some

states - led by Karnataka's ABV-based regime (30-50%+ category growth), and

in Maharashtra (20%+ category growth, economy led), Jharkhand (retail

privatization benefit) and Andhra Pradesh also inflecting. However, several

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