China Solar Solar glass px hike reinforces our thesis on sequential improvement post 2Q

Research evidence excerpt

J P M O R G A N

Asia Pacific Equity Research

06 August 2026

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China Solar

Solar glass px hike reinforces our thesis on sequential

improvement post 2Q

2.0mm solar glass prices rose ~6% WoW to Rmb9.5/sqm, the first rebound after

2Q26’s loss-making lows that came in slightly earlier than expected. Shutdowns

are materially tightening supply, cutting operating capacity from ~88k to ~73k

tons/day by end‑July. Seasonal 2H demand is lifting module output (to ~42GW in

July), drawing down inventories and enabling price hikes. We expect pricing to

strengthen further into 3Q. Possible enforcement against below‑cost selling may

potentially stabilize the cycle for the long term. We re-iterate our OW on XYS and

Flat‑H.

APAC Utilities & Renewables |

Sustainable Investing

Alan Hon AC

(852) 2800-8573

Daqi Jiao

(852) 2800-8595

J.P. Morgan Securities (Asia Pacific) Limited/ J.P.

Morgan Broking (Hong Kong) Limited

Event: 2.0mm solar glass px hiked ~6% WoW to Rmb9.5/sqm on mainstream

price quotation (per SMM) on Wednesday (5 August) post market, marking the

first price recovery.

Reasons for price hike:

* Easing supply: In 2Q26, the solar glass industry endured the worst historical

cycle, with 2.0mm solar glass px falling to an all time low of Rmb9/sqm (incl.

VAT). In our analysis, at such price levels, even the cost leaders are loss-making.

Into June/July, we have meaningful capacity shutting down. Operating solar glass

capacity has decreased from ~88k tons/day in March to ~73k tons/day (equivalent

to ~38GW per month) by end-July.

* Improving demand: As we have argued, global solar demand has a seasonality

of being 2H heavy. Thus, we have observed a monthly module production schedule

to improve from <30GW in February low to ~42GW in July, according to SMM

data. This has resulted in a reduction in industry inventory. With the entire solar

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