Technip Energies Downgrading to Neutral as Limited Near-Term Visibility Tempers Risk/Reward

Research evidence excerpt

J P M O R G A N

Europe Equity Research

05 August 2026

Technip Energies

Downgrading to Neutral as Limited Near-Term Visibility

Tempers Risk/Reward

▼Neutral

Previous: Overweight

TE.PA, TE FP

Price (05 Aug 26):€30.08

▼Price Target (Dec-27):€35.00

Prior (Dec-27):€44.00

We downgrade Technip Energies to Neutral following our post-results model

update, as the quarter provided greater clarity on a more gradual path to reported

Project Delivery margin recovery than we previously anticipated. Continued

Middle East disruption drove a further reduction in FY26 Project Delivery margin

guidance, with the shares falling ~10% on the day. While our broader view

following 1Q results that contractual protections should ultimately support

recovery of disruption-related costs remains unchanged, management now

assumes current operating conditions persist through year-end and prudently

recognises recoveries only once commercial mechanisms are established. This

raises the bar for another guidance reduction absent a further deterioration in

operating conditions. At the same time, uncertainty around settlement timing, the

expected recognition of reimbursements at little or no margin and a heavier

contribution from early-stage projects in Project Delivery are likely to temper

reported margins through much of 2027, with reported Project Delivery margin

recovery now increasingly weighted toward 2028, in our view.

European Oil & Gas

Following our model update, our revised price target of €35/share (from €44/share)

implies ~14% upside, broadly in line with our Neutral-rated OFS peers. We

continue to see attractive medium-term earnings potential supported by a record

backlog, with additional optionality from TPS expansion and potential Middle

East reconstruction activity, although the timing and earnings contribution of these

opportunities remain difficult to quantify today. However, with the timing of

commercial settlements still uncertain, reported Project Delivery margin recovery

now expected to be more back-end loaded, and limited visible positive catalysts in

the near term, we believe the remaining upside is no longer sufficiently

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