Copa Holdings 2Q26 Results: In Line with JPMe But a Miss to Consensus; Best in Class Execution with Limited Upside to 2026 Estimates

Research evidence excerpt

J P M O R G A N

Latin America Equity Research

05 August 2026

Copa Holdings

2Q26 Results: In Line with JPMe But a Miss to

Consensus; Best in Class Execution with Limited

Upside to 2026 Estimates

Overweight

CPA, CPA US

Price (05 Aug 26):$150.78

Latin American Transportation

Copa Holdings (CPA US, OW) delivered resilient 2Q26 results, highlighted by an

8.7% operating margin — the strongest performance across the region. That said,

quarterly figures came in broadly in line with our estimates while falling short of

consensus expectations. The company reported operating profit of US$91.7

million (-50% y/y; in line with JPMe and -11% vs. Bloomberg consensus) and net

income of US$68.2 million (-54% y/y; in line with JPMe and -10% vs. consensus).

Copa reinstated its full-year guidance, now projecting an EBIT margin in the range

of 17–19% (vs. JPMe at 18.6% and consensus at 19.2%) and RASM of 12 cents

(in line with JPMe). While we consider Copa’s 2Q execution and 2026 outlook to

be best-in-class, we would anticipate a neutral-to-negative stock reaction, driven

by the quarterly miss relative to consensus and the limited upside to full-year

expectations — particularly in the context of CPA already outperforming peers by

33 p.p. on average year-to-date. CPA is currently trading at 5.5x EV/EBITDA on

a 12-month forward basis, compared to LTM (OW) at 4.9x and other regional peers

at 3.9x.

Guilherme Mendes AC

(55-11) 4950-4105

Julia Orsi

(55-11) 4950 3351

Banco J.P. Morgan S.A.

• 2Q26 Numbers. (i) Revenue: Copa posted US$1,059 million in net revenues

during the quarter (+26% y/y), a 1% beat to JPMe but 2% below consensus. (ii)

Operational Results: Capacity (as previously reported) accelerated by 16.5%

y/y while yields ended the quarter at 12.63 cents (+9% y/y), in line with our call.

RASM was 11.58 cents (+8% y/y), +1% vs. our estimates. Total reported

CASM came in at 10.58 cents (+25% y/y), +1% vs. our estimates, while CASM

ex-fuel came in at 5.66 cents (-2% y/y), -1% vs. JPMe. This quarter, Copa had

40% of bookings sold before the jet fuel increase, and the company was able to

recapture ~40% of the higher fuel costs. (iii) EBIT: Reported operating profit

…