Hong Kong Insurance HK offshore insurance tax: negative for sentiment, but not a thesis breaker

Research evidence excerpt

J P M O R G A N

Asia Pacific Equity Research

06 August 2026

Hong Kong Insurance

HK offshore insurance tax: negative for sentiment, but

not a thesis breaker

According to Caixin (link), Chinese mainland tax authorities have reportedly

begun levying a 20% personal income tax on returns from offshore insurance

policies, including Hong Kong life policy dividends and interest on prepaid

premiums. While we cannot verify the details, the headline is clearly negative for

sentiment, given lingering concerns over regulatory tightening in HK offshore

insurance. That said, we think much of this risk is already reflected in valuations.

AIA trades at only 1.1x FY27E P/EV, close to its historical trough of 1.0x and well

below its historical average of 1.7x, while FWD trades at just 0.6x FY27E P/EV.

We therefore see potential valuation support for AIA around 1.0x P/EV, or HK

$72.5. With limited near-term visibility on HK offshore regulation, we continue to

prefer Ping An-H and China Life-H over AIA into 1H26 results, given more

attractive relative valuations and dividend yields. (link)

Worth revisiting geographical diversification. While market focus remains on

Hong Kong MCV, or mainland Chinese visitors, HK multinational insurers are not

wholly reliant on this segment, despite its more than 20% contribution to annual

NBV. Other businesses, including HK onshore, Mainland China, ASEAN and

India, continue to grow rapidly, supporting embedded value growth, cash

generation and capital returns. This is why we think 1.0x P/EV could provide nearterm fundamental valuation support for AIA, despite negative sentiment.

Insurance

MW Kim AC

(852) 2800-8517

J.P. Morgan Securities (Asia Pacific) Limited/ J.P.

Morgan Broking (Hong Kong) Limited

Dan Wang

(86-21) 6106-6349

SAC Registration Number: S1730524080001

J.P. Morgan Securities (China) Company Limited

Julia Kim

(852) 2800-8540

J.P. Morgan Securities (Asia Pacific) Limited/ J.P.

Morgan Broking (Hong Kong) Limited

HK growth expectations appear to have reset. Historically, HK was not the main

growth driver for HK life insurers, but market attention shifted to MCV after the

post-COVID border reopening and strong life sales recovery.…