European Luxury Goods Chase(ing) US consumer spending: Slower spend in July

Research evidence excerpt

J P M O R G A N

Europe Equity Research

06 August 2026

European Luxury Goods

Chase(ing) US consumer spending: Slower spend in

July

According to our Chase credit card data, in July (through the 28th) US consumer

spending grew +3.8%, a sharp deceleration from June (+6.0%), below the Q2

average at +5.4% and Q1 average at +4.1%. Discretionary spending slowed to a

similar pace, to +3.8% vs June +6.4%, on comps 200bps tougher, and +5.5% in Q2.

By category, 'Jewelry stores' remained one of the best performers in absolute terms

but also slowed to +5.8% vs +11.1% in June on 260bps tougher comps. 'Sporting

goods, hobby, book & music stores', 'Clothing and accessory stores' and 'Clothing

and footwear' all showed sequential deceleration. By income bracket, all cohorts

moderated in discretionary spending trends vs last month, with middle- and upperincome consumers still relatively more resilient at c.5.5% growth in July (vs.

7.8/8% in June). July is a small month for luxury spend, and comps were tough

annualising last year's price increases following the rise in import duties (comps

get easier from September), so possibly it might be too early to read too much into

this monthly slowdown. Having said that, Americans were a key engine of luxury

growth in Q2 (along with Koreans) and hence needed to comp the comp into H2

26.

Total discretionary spending through late July was +3.8% yoy, well below

June (+6.4%), and is tracking behind the Q2 average (+5.5%) and the Q1

average (+5.0%). Jewelry stores remained one of the best-performing

categories (among those we track) within the discretionary bucket, with

spending running at +5.8% through July 28th, albeit a sharp slowdown vs

+11.1% in June. This is also slower than the Q2 average of +10.7% and the Q1

average of +9.7%. Among the other categories we track, spending at sporting

goods and hobby stores decelerated to +6.0% vs +8.5% in June. The clothing

and footwear segment slowed to +0.2% vs June +4.6%, and spending at

department stores remained weak at -4.3% vs -4.2% in June. Finally,

spending at clothing and accessories stores also showed a sequential

deceleration to +4.4% vs +7.8% last month.

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