PPC Group H1’26 First Take: Decent print tracks in line with reiterated FY targets

Research evidence excerpt

J P M O R G A N

CEEMEA Equity Research

06 August 2026

PPC Group

H1’26 First Take: Decent print tracks in line with

reiterated FY targets

Our Take: Yesterday after market close, PPC released a robust set of results despite Q2 EBITDA missing our and BBG consensus forecasts by c. 10%, H1

group adjusted EBITDA/attributable net income still tracked at a solid 52%/53%

of the reiterated FY’26 targets. Post the recently concluded equity raise, leverage

has expectedly reset down to 1.2x ND/EBITDA (vs 3.5x target ceiling), allowing

PPC to continue on its RES growth path, both organic and M&A-driven. On the

latter, after recently expanding to Poland and Hungary (in-line with its “entering

new markets” strategy), PPC commented that more similar agreements are likely

to be announced in the coming months, as the company continues selective

acquisitions. On the earnings call, management commented that they: 1) remain

confident about RES capacity growth delivery into 2030 (with c. 81% of the

18.8GW target currently already secured and the pipeline covering >100% of

required additions), 2) see FY’26 guidance upgrade as premature at this stage,

despite solid YTD delivery, due to lingering market volatility associated with the

Middle East conflict, and 3) reaffirm that the 300MW Kozani Data Center project

is moving ahead and discussions are expected to close sometime by this year-end

(or earlier). We are OW.

Noteworthy Areas: 1) Group investments in H1’26 amounted to €1.4bn,

tracking at (seasonally slow) 32% of FY’26 target (of €4.5bn); 2) Lignite

generation was stable YoY in H1’26 (at 1.4TWh), representing 13% of PPC’s

H1 energy mix (vs RES share rising to 52% of total); 3) PPC’s installed RES

capacity stood at 7.3GW as of Jun’26 (7.8GW in Aug’26, on pro-forma basis),

with another 7.4GW in projects under construction, ready to build or in the

tender process. 4) PPC commented that international contribution to group

EBITDA stood at 23% in H1’26. 5) In H1’26, PPC’s average retail market

share in Greece decreased to 49% and decreased to 14% in Romania. In

generation, PPC’s average market share in Greece remained stable at 31% in

H1’26 and at 23% in Romania (RES generation only).…