Nedbank Group Ltd Compressing cost-to-income is the re-rating lever (and investors should pay for the path, not just the endpoint) - stay Overweight

Research evidence excerpt

J P M O R G A N

CEEMEA Equity Research

06 August 2026

Nedbank Group Ltd

Compressing cost-to-income is the re-rating lever (and

investors should pay for the path, not just the endpoint)

- stay Overweight

Overweight

NEDJ.J, NED SJ

Price (05 Aug 26):29,116c

▲Price Target (Dec-27):38,351c

Prior (Dec-27):38,121c

Following Nedbank’s better-than-expected interim results, we believe the pivotal

question for the investment case is whether the group can sustainably build

operating leverage and compress the cost-to-income (C/I) ratio toward

management’s 54% medium‑term target, thereby unlocking the 17%

medium‑term ROE ambition. While the starting point is elevated, the direction of

travel is encouraging: the group C/I improved to 56.2% in 1H26 (from 56.9% in

1H25, 58% in FY25 and versus the peer group average of 52%). We think 54% is

achievable, albeit more likely by FY28 on our estimates (i.e., not a quick fix), but

our core message and view is that investors should pay for the path, not just the

endpoint, because the building blocks are already visible in Nedbank’s results:

discipline on cost growth, tangible productivity programmes, and clearer revenuemix levers (more detail below). Further, our meetings with Nedbank's group and

divisional management teams reinforce our positive stance on the cost outlook. We

maintain our Overweight rating on the shares, which we view as undervalued at 7x

FY27 P/E and 1x P/B . We have updated our model post the 1H results and made

minimal changes to our EPS estimates which remain 2% ahead of consensus on

avearge (JPMe growth of 7% / 10% / 11% in FY26/27/28).

Proof of direction is emerging: Nedbank delivered positive jaws in 1H26,

with expense growth below revenue growth, supporting the improved group

C/I outcome. Importantly, management continues to anchor guidance around

keeping expense growth below mid‑single digits, which we view as the

prerequisite for sustained operating leverage rather than a one‑off print. We

also view the cost opportunity as increasingly engineered rather than

aspirational: management has quantified >R1.5bn of medium‑term

productivity enhancements and cites >R375m of annualised AI-related

…