Arkema Model update: 3Q/2H26/FY27 estimates largely unchanged and well below consensus

Research evidence excerpt

J P M O R G A N

Europe Equity Research

06 August 2026

Arkema

Model update: 3Q/2H26/FY27 estimates largely

unchanged and well below consensus

Underweight

AKE.PA, AKE FP

Price (05 Aug 26):€61.00

Price Target (Dec-27):€50.00

We are updating our model following Arkema’s 2Q results. Our headline estimates for

3Q/2H26 and FY27 are broadly unchanged and remain well below consensus (Table

2), reflecting our assumption of a rapid normalization from an elevated 2Q base.

While we acknowledge a positive contribution in 2Q from self-help actions—

including efforts to improve product mix, particularly in the Adhesives business—we

still view the 2Q earnings base as inflated by pricing supported by low-cost preconflict raw material/finished goods inventories and some customer pre-buying.

From 3Q26 onward, we also see potential lagging headwinds from raw material price

inflation.

European Chemicals

(91-22) 6157-3639

J.P. Morgan India Private Limited

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JP

Valuation: FY26E/27E EV/EBITDA of 7.4x/7.5x vs. 5/10yr median

6.1x/6.6x and peers’ average multiple of 7.6x/7.3x; FY26E/27E P/E of

18.6x/20.5x vs. 5/10yr median 9.3x/10.7x and peers’ average on 15.7x/15.8x.

The stock trades on FY26E/27E FCF yield of 1.2%/3.0% vs. peers’ average

3.5%/5.1%. FY26E/27E dividend yield of 5.8%/5.8% vs. peers’ average

3.8%/4.1%. 4.6x P/TBV vs. 5/10yr median of 4.2x/5.2x.

Chetan Udeshi, CFA AC

(44-20) 7742-7034

J.P. Morgan Securities plc

Angelina Glazova, CFA

(44-20) 7134-8379

J.P. Morgan Securities plc

Kanchan Sangtani

Specialist Sales contact details:

Sam Edmunds - Specialist Sales European Industrials

(44-20) 7742-8733

Key Changes (FYE Dec)

Adj. EPS - 26E (€)

Adj. EPS - 27E (€)

Adj. EBITDA - 26E (€ mn)

Adj. EBITDA - 27E (€ mn)

Prev

2.84

2.53

1,189

1,175

Cur Δ

3.19 12.2%

2.49 -1.6%

1,225 3.0%

1,176 0.0%

Style Exposure

Contents

Key tables

Analysis of Arkema’s volume growth trend vs

peers

Valuation

Supply/demand and price/spreads charts for

Acrylic acid and PVDF

Financial Tables

Sources for: Style Exposure – J.P. Morgan Global Markets Strategy; all other tables are company data and J.P. Morgan estimates.