Graphic Packaging Holdings FY’26 earnings risk thesis is playing out but the price outlook for 2027 looks a tad better.

Research evidence excerpt

J P M O R G A N

North America Equity Research

06 August 2026

Graphic Packaging Holdings

FY’26 earnings risk thesis is playing out but the price

outlook for 2027 looks a tad better.

Neutral

GPK, GPK US

Price (05 Aug 26):$11.90

▲Price Target (Dec-27):$12.50

Prior (Dec-27):$11.70

Q2’26 was a mixed bag. On one hand, it now seems almost certain that FY’26

EBITDA will come in at or slightly above $1.05bn vs. consensus of $1.09bn

(despite being helped by reduced production curtailment and some incremental

cost savings). FCF generation for 2026 is now expected to be $100m lower than

previously guided and leverage is expected to reach ~4.6x (GPK definition) by

year end. On the other hand, pricing in certain grades has been a bit better than RISI

data suggests and GPK, along with peers, is pushing for further price increases

which, if successful, would move price/cost positive. We are more cautious on

price/cost moving positive, especially since the consumer board industry as a

whole has a poor track record of showing pricing power (shown in the note) and

as the market remains more over-supplied than historic levels. Nonetheless, it does

look as if price decreases from here are unlikely, which de-risks 2027 estimates to

some extent. Our Dec-27 target price increases from $11.7/share to $12.5/share,

which implies an annualized total return of 8%. We remain Neutral on the shares.

In the sector, we prefer exposure to US corrugated producers (see recent note here)

where there is more evidence of pricing power at more attractive valuations.

EMEA Forestry, Paper & Packaging

and South African Industrials

Detlef Winckelmann AC

(44-20) 3493-5190

J.P. Morgan Securities plc / J.P. Morgan Markets

Limited

Madhumita Phadke

(91-22) 6157-3935

J.P. Morgan India Private Limited

Key Changes (FYE Dec)

Adj. EBITDA - 26E ($ mn)

Adj. EBITDA - 27E ($ mn)

Prev

1,044

1,224

Cur

1,056

1,263

1.1%

3.2%

Quarterly Forecasts (FYE Dec)

Q2’26 results were a mixed bag. We summarize the key negatives and

positives below

Negatives: Despite GPK revising its FY’26 EBITDA guidance to the lower

end of $1.05-1.25bn, GPK’s ability to maintain the guidance floor of $1.05bn

…