Infineon Technologies Margin hiccup likely to be estimates mgmt. ahead of FY results. Strong AI growth keeps equity story intact

Research evidence excerpt

J P M O R G A N

Europe Equity Research

06 August 2026

Infineon Technologies

Margin hiccup likely to be estimates mgmt. ahead of FY

results. Strong AI growth keeps equity story intact

Weak margin guidance was the key investor focus. We believe it is more

about estimates management than actual weakness: In their May results,

Infineon had guided to around 20% segment result margin in FY26. This

implied at the time that the co. could do a ~24.5% segment result margin in

F4Q26. Thus, the guidance of 23% segment result margin in F4Q26 provided

at these results was a key disappointment. At the same time, the co. has

indicated that nothing has changed in terms of what the co. can achieve in terms

of margin in FY26. Thus, we believe that the current guidance is a way of

managing expectations for FY27. Infineon is the only company among its large

cap peers that needs to guide FY27 sales growth and margin at its full year

results. Consensus estimates for the FY27 margin ahead of this report were

24.6% or ~25%. Given that Infineon does not have full year visibility so early

in the year, their FY guidance then is always conservative. The co. has also

indicated that they don’t expect the normal seasonality of 5-6% QoQ decline

in Dec qtr to apply. Secondly, the idle charges will be reduced in FY27. Thus,

the risk at the current results was that estimates for FY27 margin would

increase again, if the co. had guided the expected 24.5% margin. Thus, we

believe that to control the FY27 margin estimates, the co. has been intentionally

cautious on F4Q26. We see the F4Q26 margin guidance as more about forward

planning than about what exactly the co. can achieve in the quarter.

AI trends are very strong and Infineon's market share is robust. Thus,

estimates could significantly increase through FY27 and FY28: Infineon

has indicated that they will now achieve €1.6bn+ in AI revenue in FY26 ahead

of the previously guided €1.5bn. The co. has also previously guided for FY27

AI revenue to be €2.5bn, guidance which has not been updated, though the co.

is indicating that they expect to materially upgrade this guidance - likely at

FY26 results in November.…