Expeditors Brand New Day, Upgrading to Neutral

Research evidence excerpt

J P M O R G A N

North America Equity Research

05 August 2026

Expeditors

▲Neutral

Previous: Underweight

Brand New Day, Upgrading to Neutral

EXPD, EXPD US

Price (04 Aug 26):$181.48

▲Price Target (Dec-27):$200.00

Prior (Dec-26):$144.00

We are upgrading EXPD from Underweight to Neutral as we revise our estimates

and price target following another earnings beat in the 8th out of the last 9 quarters.

This momentum should be further supported by an unprecedented restructuring

effort by the relatively new senior management team, which has quietly reshaped

the company’s structure and cost profile. See our last two conversations with the

C-suite here and here for further details. Long-standing concerns of profit

normalization have come and gone as Expeditors continues to manage through and

benefit from persistent volatility across Airfreight and Ocean while the Customs

business line has an increasingly clear path to steady growth amidst tariff-related

complexity. Expeditors also appears more focused on broadening its value-added

service offerings, including expanded global Aircraft on Ground (AOG)

capabilities alongside continued investment in temperature-controlled capacity.

We expect the implications of the Global Technology restructuring will be debated

in the market after a surprising shift by the company, although it does introduce the

possibility that Expeditors could start to build a productivity story similar to C.H.

Robinson over time (see Figure 4). Management will have an engaged audience for

the long-awaited investor day in New York City on November 18 which seems like

the next logical catalyst for EXPD after the stock has clearly powered through the

Underweight thesis with recent performance and strategic actions.

Airfreight and Customs powered a large 2Q26 beat. Operating income

beat consensus and JPMe by +$0.31 and +$0.34 as Airfreight net revenue

surged to $360.1mm, topping JPMe by +34.7% and the Street by +33.1%

on +14% tonnage and highly elevated buy/sell rates tied to constrained

belly capacity from the Middle East conflict and AI hyperscaler demand.

Customs Brokerage net revenue of $546.4mm came in +0.8% above JPMe

…