Life360 2Q26 Preview - May/June exit rate to underpin confidence in full-year MAU growth

Research evidence excerpt

J P M O R G A N

Asia Pacific Equity Research

05 August 2026

Life360

2Q26 Preview - May/June exit rate to underpin

confidence in full-year MAU growth

Expectations into the result: Life360 will report 2Q results on Tuesday 11th

August. JPMe revenue $157m (in-line w/ consensus), $25m EBITDA at 16%

margin (-3% vs. consensus $26m at 17% margin), assuming a steeper margin

expansion in 3/4Q. 360 has guided to 4.3m net MAU adds in 2Q, consistent with

2Q25, implying a ramp to 5.5-6.5m MAU adds per quarter in 3/4Q, assuming 1720% MAU growth guidance for CY26 is retained. We assume coverage of 360 at

an OW rating and Dec-26 PT of $32/sh.

Monthly Active Users (MAU). At the 1Q result, management guided for 2Q

MAU growth to be broadly flat y/y in absolute terms (+4.3m). This follows a

soft 1Q (+1.9m), driven by one-off tech and play store ranking issue. The latter

persisted into April and therefore present in the 2Q print, such that the focus

will be on the May/June exit rate as a guide to 3/4Q MAU growth. CY26 MAU

growth guidance was lowered to 17-20% (prev. ~20%) at the 1Q result,

therefore implying quarterly net MAU additions of ~5-6.5m per quarter over

3/4Q. Sensortower data suggests 2Q MAU +20% (US +17%, Intl +24%) and

a strong start to 3Q (July: US +19%, Intl +25%). We forecast 2Q MAU adds

+4.3m (+16% y/y) in-line with mgmt commentary (US +2.1m, International

+2.2m).

Paying Circles. We forecast 1Q Paying Circles 2.222m (+23% y/y) in the US

and 941k (+30% y/y) international, with the penetration rate (paying circles as

a % of MAU) flat q/q at 3.1% (US 4.1%, Intl 2.0%). International markets will

continue to lag on penetration despite making up a disproportionate share of

MAU growth going forward, which will be a priority for management longerterm to develop product/features to bridge the paid penetration gap in

international markets. Importantly, paid user acquisition was not materially

impacted by the softer MAU growth rate in 1Q as older/android users

contribute a lower share of paid users. 2Q will again be too early to see upside

on Pets, with the re-launch into the US summer the near-term opportunity.

Margin.…