Keikyu (9006) 1Q results: FY2026 starts in line with guidance and estimates; this fiscal year, real estate sales to be concentrated in 2H

Research evidence excerpt

J P M O R G A N

Asia Pacific Equity Research

05 August 2026

Keikyu (9006)

1Q results: FY2026 starts in line with guidance and

estimates; this fiscal year, real estate sales to be

concentrated in 2H

Underweight

9006.T, 9006 JP

Price (05 Aug 26):¥1,517

Price Target (Dec-26):¥1,500

Neutral: 1Q operating profit fell 9.2% YoY to ¥7.7 billion (we estimated ¥7.7

billion, and the Bloomberg consensus estimate was ¥8.3 billion). Progress toward

full-year guidance appears weak, but management commented that progress is in

line with it since real estate sales will be concentrated in 2H, and it left full-year

operating profit guidance unchanged at 34.1% YoY growth to ¥45.0 billion (our

estimate: ¥45.4 billion, Bloomberg consensus estimate: ¥46.1 billion). DPS

guidance is also unchanged, at ¥46 (policy dividend payout ratio of 40%). Keikyu’s

policy is to implement share buybacks when conditions are suitable, and in May

2026, it announced an ongoing share buyback (up to ¥30 billion (9.29% of total

shares outstanding), from May 12 to March 31, 2027, buying on the market

including via ToSTNeT-3) aimed at achieving the FY2026 ROE target of 8%.

Japan Equity Research

Transportation (Land, Sea, Air), OTC

& Small Companies, Real Estate &

REITs

Ryota Himeno AC

(81-3) 6736-8639

JPMorgan Securities Japan Co., Ltd.

Results overview: By segment, 1Q operating profit fell ¥0.5 billion YoY to

¥4.6 billion in transportation (full-year guidance: -¥2.6 billion YoY to ¥16.0

billion), ¥0.1 billion to ¥0.8 billion (+¥15.3 billion to ¥20.0 billion) in real

estate, and ¥0.4 billion to ¥1.4 billion (+¥0.1 billion to ¥5.7 billion) in leisure

& service. Versus guidance, profit overshot in businesses including hotels,

department stores, and shopping centers, but undershot in areas like the railway

business (June saw typhoon impact) and stores. Full-year guidance has

condominium sales growth (we forecast ¥5.0 billion profit growth) and sale

gains accompanying real estate securitization (¥10.0 billion) as the drivers. In

transportation, full-year guidance has profit falling despite solid railway

revenue, due to higher costs. Ridership at the two Haneda Airport stations grew

…