European Steel Weekly dashboard: steel spreads >10% higher in last one month as steel prices accelerate higher, iron ore & met coal prices lower

Research evidence excerpt

J P M O R G A N

Europe Equity Research

05 August 2026

European Steel

Weekly dashboard: steel spreads >10% higher in last

one month as steel prices accelerate higher, iron ore &

met coal prices lower

Our latest valuation and commodity price scenario analysis across our EMEA

Mining & Steel coverage (link).

In the past week, European Carbon Steel share prices have moved higher, with

ArcelorMittal (Neutral), SSAB (Neutral), Voestalpine (OW) up ~5%. Conversely,

Stainless Steel share prices are lower, with Outokumpu -8% (Neutral) and Aperam

-5% (Neutral), as both companies reported Q2 results that guided to weaker

downstream demand conditions in Stainless. European HRC steel prices are steady

at ~€720/t which Argus suggests is emerging as Europe’s price floor for Q3. US

prices are steady at >3 year highs; US HRC is ~$1,180/t and US Plate is +$30/t this

week to ~$1,340/t. Bullish for Steel equities, steel spreads are >10% higher in the

last 1 month as iron ore prices have dropped to <$95/t and coking coal to ~$215/t.

European Metals, Mining & Steel

Dominic O'Kane AC

(44-20) 7742-6729

J.P. Morgan Securities plc

Patrick Jones

(44-20) 7742-5964

J.P. Morgan Securities plc

Varun Bhattad

(91-22) 6157-5027

J.P. Morgan India Private Limited

Rosie Jia

Voestalpine reported FY Q1’27 today (link). Q1 underlying EBITDA of €395m is

in-line vs JPMe & company consensus (€397m). FY’27 EBITDA guidance is

unchanged at €1.6-1.85bn, consistent with consensus €1.79bn. Mgmt note that

approved German infrastructure investment and higher European security/defense

spending has had a stabilizing effect, but demand in construction and mechanical

engineering are subdued and front-loaded EU imports weighed on prices during

the period. Mgmt expects an upward price trend in H2’26 as new EU protectionist

measures are in effect from 1 July.

(44-20) 3493-7448

J.P. Morgan Securities plc

A complicating factor for Northern European steelmakers in the past few weeks is

low Rhine water level, which is reported to have led ThyssenKrupp to slightly

reduce production at its Duisburg site. At the Kaub monitoring station, water levels

have dropped to the 25cm record low last seen in 2018.…