NiSource Inc. Quiet Update; MSFT Contract & Regulatory Playbook Topical For Call; 2Q Results In Line; Guidance Reaffirmed

Research evidence excerpt

J P M O R G A N

North America Equity Research

05 August 2026

NiSource Inc.

Quiet Update; MSFT Contract & Regulatory Playbook

Topical For Call; 2Q Results In Line; Guidance

Reaffirmed

Overweight

NI, NI US

Price (04 Aug 26):$44.53

North American Utilities

2Q results land in line; 2026 guidance reaffirmed. NI reported adj 2Q26 EPS

of $0.16, matching the JPMe and Street median. The company reaffirmed 2026

consolidated adj EPS guidance of $2.02-$2.07 ($2.05 JPMe/Street) and the

9%-10% consolidated adj EPS CAGR through 2033.

IURC affordability investigation and broader regulatory backdrop in

focus. Against the backdrop of the IURC's ongoing affordability investigation,

NI filed a Section 205 application with FERC in August seeking recovery of

costs associated with continued operation of the Schahfer coal plant. Columbia

Gas of Virginia and Kentucky rate cases filed in May represent additional nearterm regulatory markers, while the Kentucky SMRP tracker moved from

pending to approved between quarters. Our recent NARUC Summer Summit

takeaways add texture to the regulatory backdrop: IN conversations flagged

meaningful commission independence concerns following recent personnel

changes, with Governor Braun's rate posture and potential to appoint a fully

self-selected commission introducing incremental downward ROE and tracker

pressure. By contrast, PA screens constructively, with the PAPUC reaffirming

its independence from the Governor's office and a recent peer rate case order

reinforcing a disciplined, constructive ratemaking posture.

GenCo execution underway; MSFT contract in LaPorte the next catalyst.

Attention remains on a potential MSFT contract in LaPorte service territory,

where land acquisitions and site execution continue to advance. We view a

formal MSFT signing as increasingly likely, though NI commentary prior to

any announcement remains limited. A MSFT contract would add meaningfully

to the 3 GW strategic negotiation pipeline, not embedded in the 9%-10%

consolidated adj EPS CAGR guidance through 2033, framing incremental

contracting wins as pure upside to GenCo adj EPS ramping to $0.40-$0.60 by

2033.…