Endeavour Mining (EDV LN) Q2’26 results wrap: Further cash returns upside, Assafou FID and Sabodala UG projects on track to deliver ~1.5Moz pa medium-term target – Stay OW

Research evidence excerpt

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Europe Equity Research

05 August 2026

Endeavour Mining (EDV LN)

Q2’26 results wrap: Further cash returns upside,

Assafou FID and Sabodala UG projects on track to

deliver ~1.5Moz pa medium-term target – Stay OW

Overweight

EDV.L, EDV LN

Price (04 Aug 26):3,636p

Price Target (Dec-27):5,100p

We update our forecasts for Endeavour following its Q2’26 results released last

week (first take: link). EDV Q2’26 EBITDA was +2% vs company Consensus and

-1% vs JPMe. FCF and net cash significantly beat vs JPMe and Cons on better CFO

and working capital release. Net cash of ~$0.3bn was equivalent to ~2% of market

cap. On guidance, production and AISC guidance were unchanged. AISC

guidance remains predicated on $3,000/oz gold, and so JPMe and Bloomberg

Consensus still sit well above the guidance range (JPMe: ~$1,830/oz, Con: ~

$1,840/oz). Total capex guidance was raised to $650m (previously $600m) given

$50m high SIB capex for Hounde and Lafigue (waste stripping). The focus remains

on execution of key growth projects Sabodala-Massawa UG expansion and

Assafou’s upcoming FID, both of which remain on track for H2’26. Vindaloo

Deeps and Kawsara could eventually take group output beyond management’s

current medium-term target of ~1.5Moz pa and management indicated an

exploration update during H2’26 that could yield greater detail on these targets.

With H1’26 cash returns already exceeding management’s prior target of ~$300m,

we forecast YE’26 net cash of $524m. We expect management could deliver FY’26

shareholder returns of $600m (~5% of market cap). We revise our 2026E/27E

EBITDA by -3%/-1% and we sit -7%/-9% vs BBG consensus (mainly driven by

lower gold price). Our Dec’27 PT is unchanged at £51.0/sh. EDV trades on markto-market 4.5x/3.8x 2026/27E EV/EBITDA and 11%/12% FCF yield. We rate

Endeavour Overweight.

European Metals, Mining & Steel

Patrick Jones AC

(44-20) 7742-5964

J.P. Morgan Securities plc

Dominic O'Kane

(44-20) 7742-6729

J.P. Morgan Securities plc

Rosie Jia

(44-20) 3493-7448

J.P. Morgan Securities plc

Varun Bhattad

(91-22) 6157-5027

J.P. Morgan India Private Limited

Quarterly Forecasts (FYE Dec)

Adj. EPS ($)

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

FY

2025A

0.70

1.10

0.68

0.27

2.75

…