European Airlines Pricing Pulse - July 2026

Research evidence excerpt

J P M O R G A N

Europe Equity Research

05 August 2026

European Airlines

Pricing Pulse - July 2026

We publish our monthly LCC pricing monitor, with data sourced from RDC

Aviation. (1) Close-in fares for July were softer versus the three-month-out level,

driven by incremental softness in the data for easyJet and Jet2, while Ryanair was

stable and Wizz saw a small improvement. (2) Estimated average RDC fares for

Q3 have therefore softened to -7% on average for the LCCs (versus -5%

previously). This was mainly due to softer July close-in fares and September threemonth-out fares. We estimate from RDC that for Q3 Ryanair is tracking -4% (-2%

previously), easyJet -5% (-1% previously), Wizz -14% (unchanged) and Jet2 -6%

(-4% previously). Recent LCC commentary has focused on better volume

momentum after the first ceasefire, however no acceleration in pricing, with

Ryanair downgrading its fares guidance for peak summer to “down modestly”

(down LSD-MSD % on the call). We would note that late bookings for August and

September may yet prove to be solid. However, in our view European short-haul

continues to see a worse supply-demand dynamic versus long-haul, with capacity

growth going into an already competitive market backdrop and consumer

sentiment impacted by the Middle East, and this may continue into this winter. We

are OW Ryanair, Neutral Jet2 and Wizz, and UW easyJet. There are no changes to

the estimates with this note.

(1) July close-in fares were softer: One-month-out July fares were softer at

-9% on average, versus -7% at the three-month-out point. This was driven by

easyJet and Jet2, with easyJet close-in fares down -6% (vs. -1% at three-monthout) and Jet2 close-in fares down -13% (vs. -8% at three-month-out). Ryanair

was unchanged at -7% while Wizz saw better close-in fares at -11% (vs. -14%

at three-month-out). This broadly aligns with recent company commentary

where easyJet may require some potential price stimulation in order to close

existing load factor gaps.

Figure 1: July close-in fares were on average softer versus the three-month-out level

European Transport & Logistics

Harry J Gowers AC

(44-20) 7134-7522

J.P. Morgan Securities plc

Alexia Dogani

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