Shopify “Monster" Print: 2Q Upside Across All Metrics; 3Q Outlook Suggests 30%+ Revenue Growth & Mid-High 20%’s Gross Profit Growth; Top Pick & AFL

Research evidence excerpt

J P M O R G A N

North America Equity Research

05 August 2026

Shopify

“Monster" Print: 2Q Upside Across All Metrics; 3Q

Outlook Suggests 30%+ Revenue Growth & Mid-High

20%’s Gross Profit Growth; Top Pick & AFL

Overweight

SHOP, SHOP US

Price (04 Aug 26):$123.30

Internet - Mid & Small Cap

Our Initial Take: In the words of SHOP President Harley Finkelstein—

SHOP delivered a “monster” print. Shares are trading up ~20%+ premarket (vs. the SPX up 2% yesterday) driven by 2Q results & 3Q guidance

that exceeded elevated investor expectations, based on our conversations,

across all metrics. Recall, we added SHOP to the JPM Analyst Focus List

with our 2Q preview based on our expectations for a 2Q beat and upside

to high 3Q investor expectations. SHOP is driving momentum across

cohorts, merchant sizes, channels, and geos, all of which supported +34%

Revenue growth (+33% FXN), +31% Gross Profit Dollar Growth, & 18% FCF

margins in 2Q. Looking ahead, 3Q Revenue growth guidance of low-30%’s

suggests stable trends despite more challenging Y/Y comps, 3Q Gross Profit

Dollar expectation for mid-high 20%’s growth came in above expectations, &

3Q FCF margin guidance of High-Teens %’s to Low-20%’s suggests

sequential improvement (~18% in 2Q).We remain bullish on SHOP’s

demand momentum, Rule of 40 financial profile, and AI leadership—

SHOP remains our Top Pick.

30%+ 2Q GMV & Revenue Both Well Above Expectations. 2Q GMV

growth of +32% Y/Y ($116B, +30% FXN) exceeded JPMe/consensus of

+29%/+28%. 2Q Revenue growth of +34% Y/Y ($3.58B, +33% FXN)

exceeded mgmt’s high-20%’s guide & JPMe/consensus of +30%/+29%.

Merchant Solutions Revenue of $2.78B (+37% Y/Y, +35% FXN) exceeded

JPMe of $2.67B (+32% Y/Y) & consensus of $2.66B. Subscription Solutions

Revenue of $802M (+22% Y/Y, +22% FXN) came in-line with JPMe of

$805M (+23% Y/Y) but exceeded consensus at $790M.

2Q Gross Profit, Operating Income, & FCF Margin Nicely Above

Expectations. 2Q Gross Profit Dollars grew +31% ($1.71B, ~48% margin),

above mgmt’s guidance for mid-20%’s growth & JPMe/consensus of +26%/

+26%. 2Q Operating Income of $488M (~13.6% margin) came inabove JPMe

of $417M, including GAAP opex comprising ~34% of revenue, below mgmt’s

…