Spire Inc F3Q Ahead; MO Filing and AAO Resolution Key Catalysts; Await Re-Base Preview Ahead of Year End Update

Research evidence excerpt

J P M O R G A N

North America Equity Research

05 August 2026

Spire Inc

F3Q Ahead; MO Filing and AAO Resolution Key

Catalysts; Await Re-Base Preview Ahead of Year-End

Update

Neutral

SR, SR US

Price (04 Aug 26):$79.56

North American Utilities

MO rate case remains the key swing factor for rebasing at year end; eyes

on AL this week. Investor attention centers on MO, where SR reached an AAO

settlement in July (subject to MoPSC approval) with a hearing scheduled for

September; SR's first-ever future test year rate case filing targets midNovember, carrying meaningful re-rating potential as the structural shift pulls

capital recovery forward. A new Missouri ISRS filing of $21.3mm targets rates

effective November 2026, following the $16.5mm ISRS approved in March

2026. We view MO AAO resolution as a key driver for FY28 guidance and a

potential re-basing, given management pointing to above-trend FY28 EPS

growth as possible. Alabama/Gulf RSE renewal hearings proceed August 6–7,

with SR requesting 10.5% ROE for Alabama and 10.75% for Gulf;

management does not anticipate a material shift in earnings power, noting the

utility earns within a well-defined 9.5–9.9% ROE range. We view RSE renewal

hearings as more process-oriented than transformative and unlikely to drive a

material enterprise shift, despite noise around the broader regulatory backdrop.

FY26/FY27 guidance reaffirmed on a completed portfolio

transformation; await re-base preview ahead of November update. SR

reaffirmed FY26 adjusted EPS guidance of $3.90–$4.10 ($4.05/4.01 JPMe/

Street median $4.05) and FY27 guidance of $5.40–$5.60 ($5.53/5.50 JPMe/

Street median), reflecting a full year of Tennessee contributions. With portfolio

optimization now largely complete (Marketing and Storage divestitures closed

in F3Q and Mississippi expected to close Q1 FY27), guidance reflects a

regulated rate-base profile across MO, AL, and TN, removing meaningful

earnings variability. SR targets a re-base of its 5–7% EPS growth target

alongside FY28 guidance on the November year-end call, with above-trend

EPS growth expected upon Missouri rate case resolution.

TN regulatory updates topical; we look to the territory as a growth

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