Ternium Straight from the Call

Research evidence excerpt

J P M O R G A N

Latin America Equity Research

05 August 2026

Ternium

Straight from the Call

Overweight

TX, TX US

Price (04 Aug 26):$50.34

LatAm Basic Materials

Ternium recently held its 2Q26 results conference call. Overall, the company

remains focused on capturing an improving Mexican market, advancing its

strategic Pesquería investments toward the early-2027 slab facility startup, and

navigating a still-uncertain trade environment (USMCA/Section 232). For more

details, please check: Costs Drive Beat to JPMe .More details on the call below:

Mexican prices: rising, with realization gains continuing but tempered by

mix. Management noted that Mexican steel prices are following the same

upward trend as the U.S. Price realization in 2Q26 was supported by improving

prices, though partly held back by a sales mix that shifted toward the

commercial market, where pricing is more spot-based, versus the industrial

market (affected by Section 232 caution among manufacturing customers).

Management expects price realization to increase further q/q in 3Q26, while

the sales mix is not expected to change much. The ~$300/ton gap between

Mexican and U.S. HRC prices is attributed mainly to the effectiveness of U.S.

Section 232 versus less-effective Mexican trade measures, and is expected to

begin narrowing once the U.S.–Mexico trade discussions produce

conclusions.

U.S. market: new capacity and blast furnace restart seen as

manageable. Asked about the ~$300/ton Mexico–U.S. HRC gap and risk from

new capacity: Management noted that it does not see a major risk to U.S. prices,

expecting new capacity to be absorbed by a combination of declining imports

and an eventual pickup in demand. Management acknowledged there could be

moments of price softness or oversupply but did not foresee a significant

impact from the restart of capacity.

Customer mood in Mexico: waiting on a Section 232

resolution. Management characterized industrial customers, especially those

of U.S. origin, as awaiting a resolution on Section 232 and USMCA, given their

integrated U.S.–Mexico supply chains; most expect an agreement and see

removal of Section 232 as an opportunity to strengthen regional production

…