Heineken Post the call: Improved execution, H2 profit slowdown

Research evidence excerpt

J P M O R G A N

Europe Equity Research

05 August 2026

Heineken

Post the call: Improved execution, H2 profit slowdown

Neutral

HEIN.AS, HEIA NA

Price (04 Aug 26):€77.70

Price Target (Dec-27):€70.00

Heineken CFO, Harold van den Broek, presented the company’s H126 post-results

conference call (see our First Take), reaffirming full-year outlook of +2-6%

organic operating profit growth, despite strong outperformance in H1 (+6.7%) and

a confident tone on the company’s productivity and cost-saving initiatives. The

company noted APAC and AME as notable positives in the half, whilst expressing

dissatisfaction regarding the Americas region. Net revenue +2.7% was premiumvolumes led, with the Heineken brand seeing +DD% growth in 18 different

markets. FCF was highlighted, with 97% conversion, and an increase of c.€1.1bn

in the half, mainly driven by strong working capital contribution (+€625m benefit

y/y) and reduced CapEx outflow (+€328m benefit y/y). 2026 should continue to

be a year of accelerated EverGreen 2030 strategy implementation, including a

clustering of elements of the cost base of nine countries in Europe into four regions

driving costs savings. Overall, the company delivered a strong performance in H1

on organic operating profit led by volume-led growth in AME and APAC, and strict

cost discipline, though it cautioned about Vietnam's deceleration in H2. We also

expect to face higher costs in H2, Europe volumes while questions remain on how

the Americas turnaround and pick up in Europe despite easy comparatives. Net net,

we would expect a slight rise to consensus EPS led by higher organic EBIT, and

while the stcok has run well over the past 2 months, we see limited upside from here

with slowing H2 profit growth.

European Food Producers,

Household & Personal Care

Products, Beverages & Tobacco

Celine Pannuti, CFA AC

(44-20) 7134-7123

J.P. Morgan Securities plc

Specialist Sales contact details:

Olivia Petronilho - Specialist Sales European Consumer

(44-20) 3493-3709

Key takeaways from the call: 1) Top line: Management commented on highquality growth with volume momentum the driver, improving through H1.

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