Marcopolo 2026 APIMEC and 2Q26 Conference Call Highlights

Research evidence excerpt

J P M O R G A N

Latin America Equity Research

05 August 2026

Marcopolo

2026 APIMEC and 2Q26 Conference Call Highlights

Overweight

POMO4.SA, POMO4 BZ

Price (04 Aug 26):R$4.81

Latin American Capital Goods

Marcopolo’s top management team hosted its 2026 APIMEC day today, together

with its 2Q26 conference call. POMO is trading at 3.9x EV/EBITDA ’27e vs BZ

Auto Parts at 4.4x.

Marcelo Motta AC

(55-11) 4950-6712

Jonathan S. Koutras

2H26 mix. Should have fewer micros in 3Q given lower Caminhos da Escola

and units for the Ministry of Health. However, urban buses volumes should not

improve given a more challenging market for renewal. As for the intercity

segment, 3Q will benefit from the Move program and 4Q is seasonally better.

Nonetheless, backlog for 4Q is still under construction, so there is limited

visibility currently on top-line level.

Profitability. 2Q was impacted by micros higher share in mix and Caminhos

da Escola (prior auction, phase 12), as well as labor inflation abroad. For 2H26,

mix should improve benefiting margins, but it is hard to state that 2Q26 will be

the lowest level in the mid-term given the soft demand environment.

Caminhos da Escola. Delay in Phase 13 volumes was mainly linked to the

delays in the auction process that started in late 2025. The upcoming election

should not affect the homologation process (happening now) and neither

volumes delivery (to start gradually in 4Q). No further deliveries from the

Phase 12 auction are expected. During 2Q POMO delivered ~1.2k units.

Backlog. 3Q26 is filled with 4Q26 being built now.

Labor inflation. Mix with lighter buses brings the challenge of optimizing

labor force size. The agreed salary readjustment with metallurgical workers in

Caxias was a 5.5% readjustment in early 2H26 plus 0.5% in December.

Bus market data. Bus sales in 1H26 have not yet reflected the units for the

Ministry of Health (1.5k in 1H26 by Marcopolo) which have not yet been

registered (“emplacados”), causing the mismatch between production and

sales.

Move program. R$2bn was already fully consumed and caused somewhat of

a postponement on coach volumes from 2Q26 to 3Q26 as clients awaited the

program going online.…