Alpha Metallurgical Resources Inc "DTA exports strong; likely inventory draw"

Research evidence excerpt

Alpha Metallurgical Resources Inc "DTA exports strong; likely inventory draw"

Global Research

24 July 2026ab

Alpha Metallurgical Resources Inc Equities

United StatesDTA exports strong; likely inventory draw

Mining

12-month rating Neutral

DTA outage not evident in exports (yet)

Dominion Terminal Associates (DTA) reported on June 18 that one of its two stacker 12m price target US$160.00

reclaimers was damaged by high winds following gusts of >80mph. As a result, Prior : US$165.00

AMR issued force majeure notices to affected customers. Despite this, July exports have

Price (23 Jul 2026) US$143.21

been strong at ~714kt across 11 vessels vs ~771kt across 12 vessels during the entire

June (Figure 1). On the surface, the data suggests no impact from the damage. However, RIC: AMR.N BBG: AMR US

our interpretation is that the damage has not yet translated into weaker exports because

Trading data and key metrics

vessel loading does not reflect underlying throughput. Our analysis shows inventories

52-wk range US$249.65-115.08

are being drawn down to offset weaker inbound flows, allowing exports to hold up. At

the current run-rate, DTA is drawing inventory by ~19ktpd, making starting inventory Market cap. US$1.86b

the key determinant of when exports begin to weaken. Shares o/s 13.0m (COM)

Free float 81%

Inventory draw has likely supported shipments Avg. daily volume ('000) 68.2

While vessel loadings remain strong, inbound activity has weakened materially. Avg. daily value (m) US$12.2

Dominion dumped ~962kt of coal last month but only ~286kt month-to-date, while Common s/h equity (12/26E) US$1.38b

exports have reached ~714kt. As a result, exports have exceeded dumped tons by P/BV (12/26E) 1.3x

~430kt so far in July, with dumped tons running at ~13ktpd vs vessel tons of ~32ktpd.