Alpha Metallurgical Resources Inc "Levered met coal play: Initiate with Neutral"

Research evidence excerpt

Alpha Metallurgical Resources Inc "Levered met coal play: Initiate with Neutral"

Global Research

10 July 2026ab

Initiation of Coverage

EquitiesAlpha Metallurgical Resources Inc

Levered met coal play: Initiate with Neutral United States

Mining

12-month rating Neutral

Balanced risk-reward; limited cash returns over 12-18mths Prior : No Rating

We initiate coverage of Alpha Met Resources (AMR) with a Neutral rating and $165/sh 12m price target US$165.00

price target. AMR enters this cycle in a stronger position than in the past, supported by Prior :

robust net cash balance sheet and significant leverage to met coal prices. However, we

Price (09 Jul 2026) US$149.43

remain cautious on the near-term outlook and high vol discounts. We expect benchmark

prices to remain range-bound over the next 12-18mths amid modest market oversupply, RIC: AMR.N BBG: AMR US

while discounts on US high vol recover only gradually. Although these dynamics should Trading data and key metrics

support earnings growth over time, we expect FCF generation and shareholder returns

52-wk range US$249.65-113.89

to lag peers in the near term. We also see risk to guidance (sales and unit costs) and

Market cap. US$1.94b

consensus from the DTA disruption, which does not appear fully reflected in market

Shares o/s 13.0m (COM)

expectations. We estimate the shares imply a realized price of ~$139/st, nearly 20%

above last year average (vs UBSe $132/144 2027/28E). We view the outlook as balanced Free float 81%

given AMR's higher cost position, high vol exposure, and limited returns near-term. Avg. daily volume ('000) 67.2

Avg. daily value (m) US$12.5

Pricing recovery likely, but expectations remain demanding Common s/h equity (12/26E) US$1.42b

The key issue for AMR is the discount applied to US high vol coal.